Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024
Report summary
The global aluminium strategic planning outlook provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2050. The aluminium market outlook is being increasingly shaped by decarbonisation. On the demand side we see an acceleration in demand from the energy transition sector together with rising offtake of secondary aluminium over the next two decades. Meanwhile, aluminium producers are now starting to reach beyond primary and integrating recycled metal. However, there will be huge challenges to fully decarbonise the primary metal part of the value chain.
Table of contents
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
- Alumina long-term outlook
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
-
Bauxite medium-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2023
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- India
- Europe
- North America
- United States
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- Indonesia
- India
- China
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2023-2050
- Asia
- China
- India
- Oceania
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
-
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 47 images and tables including:
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
- Long term price forecast at US$430/t – Incentive price US$500
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2050 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, (92% utilisation) 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- The slow road to decarbonising primary aluminium smelting
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2050, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global bauxite supply and demand, with projects, Mt (dry)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Brownfield capacity
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location: Greenfield capacity
- Long term average price forecast at US$3400/t (real 2024 $) – Incentive price US$2800
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Base case and low price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Base case, high and low price scenarios
- Base case and high price scenario balances and stock days of consumption
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2023 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth
- Global secondary consumption to grow at a healthy 3.3% p.a. to 2050
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2023 vs Q1 2024 (kt)
- Primary consumption to peak in 2029
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Non-residential construction
- Asia ex-China total aluminium demand by end-use
- Indian demand set to grow by a healthy pace between 2024-2050
- Total consumption by end-use sector in Europe
- Total consumption by end-use sector in US
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Adaro greenfield project timeline
- China’s new aluminium supply and highly probable projects, ktpa
- Production shares of China’s alumina supply by province, 2014-2024
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
- China’s alumina capacity change and highly probable project, ktpa
What's included
This report contains:
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