Impact of exploration on global oil supply
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- Exploration in the last four years has been disappointing and gas prone
- The price downturn has caused large reductions in exploration spend
- Healthy discoveries during the 2000s with longer lead times mean that there is a strong potential for medium term developments. But tough project economics have led to many being deferred
- These are also important for the longer term but unless exploration results improve continued supply growth will become unsustainable
- There could be a 4.5 million b/d shortfall by 2035 if the recent downward trend in exploration results continues
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