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US energy policy, geopolitics and market pressures collide — here’s what they mean for oil supply, gas prices and the future of global power
Explore the ripple effects of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program and how it could reshape global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East
The coronavirus outbreak has derailed OPEC+, thrown the oil market into turmoil and sent an already unloved sector into freefall. What are the implications?
What can we expect in the world of energy in 2024. A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, and the rise of blue hydrogen are among Wood Mackenzie analysts’ predictions for the year ahead.
This attack has material implications for the oil market, as a loss of 5 million barrels per day of supplies from Saudi Arabia cannot be met for long by existing inventories and the limited spare capacity of the other OPEC+ group members. A geopolitical risk premium will return to the oil price.
2023 was a year in which the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consolidated 2022’s gains. 2024 heralds much uncertainty: an expansion of OPEC quotas will impact short term oil production across the region while capacity expansion continues apace.
The North Sea has weathered several storms in its 50-year existence. But the events of the past few weeks mean the sector is entering uncharted waters. The coronavirus pandemic and collapse in OPEC+ production restraint has seen Brent reach its lowest point since 2003.
Despite the prolonged low-price oil market over the past year, North American refiners have largely remained in good financial health — but changes in the supply and demand landscape are creating uncertainties.
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Wood Mackenzie projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $73.00 per barrel (bbl) in 2025, according to its latest market outlook. The forecast considers various geopolitical and economic factors, including potential peace talks between Russia and the US regarding the Ukraine conflict, ongoing tariffs, and sanctions against Iran.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down $7 per barrel per barrel from 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year is revised down $0.40 per barrel from the early February monthly report.
May WTI futures settled at -$37.63 on April 20. Get the latest analysis from Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils.
Share price movements can be a good early indicator of changing fortunes. The oil and gas sector had a great month in September, jumping 8% and outperforming the broader global stock market by 6%. It’s more than just rotational buying.
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
OPEC+ output cuts hasten market tightening
The return of Iranian exports to the oil market in 2021 was a clear risk. If sanctions are lifted, how much oil could Iran produce and how quickly? What wiggle room would OPEC+ have to accommodate Iran's exports? What would be the effect on the oil price?
Venezuela adds fresh uncertainty to an already oversupplied oil market
Global markets were volatile heading into the new year. Oil has been no exception, with Brent trading between $62 per barrel on 7 December 2018 before falling to $51/b on 21 December. Mixed macroeconomic data have driven much of the volatility, with political uncertainty compounding concerns of a sharper than expected economic slowdown. What's the outlook for 2019?
Analysis of global oil cost curves indicates that many conventional pre-FID projects – even deepwater developments - are now competitive on a breakeven basis with US Lower 48 tight oil. However, this competitiveness has come at the expense of volumes. The trade-off of cost efficiency versus volumes means that in the medium- to long-term, the cost of supply is set to increase, highlighting the US Lower 48’s role as an important marginal barrel producer.
On 23 November, US President Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels (mbbl) of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Government starts pulling the levers to bolster the economy
Reports of the death of coal have been greatly exaggerated. Demand has been bouncing back this year as the world economy picks up again, and some prices have hit their highest levels for more than a decade.
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
What opportunities, challenges and risks does the world of energy and natural resources face in 2024? Our experts share their thoughts.
The near-term impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand remains uncertain as much depends upon when and how China’s manufacturing industry restarts after the currently extended Lunar New Year public holiday.
Recent events have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, the likes of which have never been seen before. Do these clouds carry any silver lining? Listen to the latest episode of the Asia Pacific Energy podcast.
As demand collapses, how will the market deal with oversupply? Find out in this week's Edge.
Good news on Covid-19 vaccines points to a rebound next year, but there are still some difficult months ahead
There are signs that the coronavirus is gradually being brought under control in many countries, but any pick-up in activity will be tentative and uneven, and will face headwinds from the chaos in the global economy.
Can a decade be a turning point? So much happened in the energy sector, the 2010s might be seen as just that.
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