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The OPEC+ meeting broke up without a deal, what does it mean for the markets?
Survival mode has returned to the oil and gas sector as the oil price rout deepens. Corporate financials are in better shape than during the 2014/2015 crash, but room for manoeuvre is limited. Can companies cope with prices this low?
The coronavirus pandemic is reducing oil demand. The OPEC+ production restraint agreement fell apart on 6 March and Saudi Arabia is rapidly increasing supply. The result: Brent crude has plunged to less than US$30/bbl. This will have a significant impact on currently producing fields and future supply. How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result?
Since OPEC+’s failure to agree on production restraint on 5-6 March, the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic have become far clearer, sparking a crisis in the oil market as prices fell and supply ramped up. The problem for these producers is the scale of the fall in oil demand, especially during April and forecast for Q2 2020. No matter the size of the varying forecasts, they all point to a challenging market that puts pressure on storage space and prices.
Brazil’s industrial gas demand had already started to decline in March, after coronavirus containment measures were put in place in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states. However, as lockdowns took effect across the country in the first two weeks of April, demand plunged. The oversupply has forced Petrobras to take action to mitigate the damage across the gas value chain and used its portfolio in an integrated and coordinated approach. • Covid-19 impact in the gas and power demand, and crisis management implemented by Petrobras • New power dispatch and gas market trends post Covid-19 • What to expect for LNG, Bolivian and domestic prices in the short term? • Lessons learned to gas marketing and infrastructure development players.
OPEC+ today (6 June 2020) agreed a one-month extension of the 9.7 million barrels per day (b/d) production cut. The extension will tighten the market further and could see Brent prices rise from the current $40/bbl toward $45-to-$50/bbl.
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