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Assessing the risks in a strong investment upcycle
Sharply weaker margins reflect stronger supply
LNG demand, sustaining upstream, new sources of finance, metals investment and supply chain independence.
Targets are gas and strengthening core positions
The discovery of a major new oil play like Guyana instils a sense of wonder in we oil industry devotees. What’s the story? How big could it be? Will it change the oil market? Simon takes on these questions and more.
This week in The Edge, Simon Flowers asks whether LNG is poised for a new growth cycle. And addresses three major challenges for the global LNG industry – competitive new supply, the effect of rising US supply, the need for gas advocacy.
US tight oil's growth prospects are attracting the attention of any number of upstream companies. But new entrants need to go in with their eyes wide open - it's a very different business model to conventional E&P. In Part 2 of our assessment of buying into tight oil we look at the technical, logistical and valuation pitfalls.
The industry is adapting to low oil prices. But can upstream grow in this environment? The question is a profound one, the answer in reality more about sustaining the business and maximising returns rather than pursuing growth.
2017 is set to be to be the third year Brent has traded at under half the heady levels of 2014.
Canada's investor sentiment soured by environmental concerns and competition for capital from tight oil have already begun to reshape the domestic corporate landscape.
Our Corporate Analysis team, led by Tom Ellacott, shows that for the 60 companies we cover in depth, net debt has increased by 22% or US$142bn since 2014.
How do traditional LNG suppliers, a group dominated by some of the biggest oil and gas producers, play a part in sorting things out? As the industry gathers in Tokyo for Gastech, we think there are four main elements that need addressed.
We forecast the share of gas in the peer group’s production will increase from 42% currently to over 50% by the end of the 2020s. ENI and BP will reach 60%, which is also Total’s 2035 target. There are three main themes behind the ‘dash for gas’.
‘Underwhelmed’ sums up investors’ indifferent response to the Majors’ Q1 results. What does upstream have to do to win back favour?
The firmer oil price we expect can only embolden the already resurgent US tight oil industry which is on course to displace the 1 million b/d OPEC has cut within the year. Three main aspects of the decision stand out.
Andrew Latham, our Head of Exploration Research, has built a global creaming curve for conventional exploration outside the USL48. Three themes stand out.
New thinking and new ways are needed if operators are to usher in a new era of investment in conventional projects. A dip in oil prices below US$50/bbl may be just what’s needed to concentrate minds and encourage companies to challenge industry conventions.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers sees optimism after a flush of project FIDs, a pick up in US drilling and M&A activity.
According to Chief Analyst Simon Flowers, there is finance galore for those with the right growth story. For the rest, slim pickings.
OPEC’s plan for production cuts signals a desire to support prices, even if the battle to wrest control of the market seems barely half won.
Majors’ resource capture strategies are already becoming more balanced between exploration, unconventionals, DROs and M&A.
More operators are hinting through this Q3 results season at redeploying rigs in the coming months, potentially kick starting what will be tight oil’s second great growth phase.
Although the Presidency does not officially begin until January 20th 2017, the dearth of concrete policy proposals leaves a high level of uncertainty around the priorities of a Trump administration.
Chief Analyst Simon Flowers expects prices to rise and US tight oil to lead the industry out of the downturn.
Digital technology has a major part to play in the next stage of structural cost reduction, but oil and gas production is far removed from the leading edge of the 21st century tech revolution.
A strengthening flow of deals is a clear indicator that the M&A market is getting back to business as usual, and companies are starting to think of growth again.
Despite the uptick in numbers, investment in greenfield conventional projects is stuck at a low ebb.
If oil markets remain oversupplied and prices modest, there’s much Upstream operators can learn from Downstream, which has emerged thriving from the doldrums of a decade ago.
Not long ago, growth was the big thing. This results season suggests growth targets are making a come back.
Is the oil industry on its way to recovery? Sanctioned projects are smaller and cheaper, while US tight oil buffers the decline in conventional spend.
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