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Reports of “the death of OPEC” have proved greatly exaggerated, as the cartel and its allies have shown their continuing relevance this year
A 9-month extension to the current OPEC agreement will help sustain prices in a global market that's still uneasy going into 2018.
Based on our analysis of supply and demand, a window is opening to absorb more OPEC+ oil.
Tense negotiations and rumours of a rift between Saudi Arabia and UAE ended with a compromise deal for OPEC+ on 3 December 2020. Despite concerns on oversupply for Q1 2021, the group agreed to increase output by 500,000 b/d in January. Production restraint is set at minus 7.2 million b/d instead of the Q4 2020 level of minus 7.7 million b/d.
Global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees OPEC maintaining its role as a key oil supplier through to 2040, although output from non-OPEC producers will help ensure adequate supply in the years to 2030.
OPEC’s plan for production cuts signals a desire to support prices, even if the battle to wrest control of the market seems barely half won.
The oil market is in a state of flux. Prices have fallen dramatically, and demand has taken a hit as measures are introduced across the globe to combat the spread of coronavirus. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s competition for market share has only exacerbated weak demand.
The OPEC oil producers' group and its non-OPEC allies are poised to deepen its production cuts by 1.5 million barrels per day as the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak eats into global oil demand.
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key themes – OPEC+ production, Covid-19 developments, and the energy transition.
OPEC held its scheduled bi-annual meeting virtually on 30 November 2020. Though the group was unable to reach an agreement at that meeting, up for discussion is whether the production restraint would be eased starting 1 January 2021.
Refining capacity constraints, OPEC+ strategy and investor demands have driven up fuel prices worldwide, with little prospect of relief in the short term.
A solar slowdown, relief for OPEC+, the rise of blue hydrogen, and other trends to watch out for in the year ahead
Explore the ripple effects of Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program and how it could reshape global oil markets and geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East
2020 was a difficult year for the world’s refineries as the coronavirus pandemic reduced refinery utilisation and OPEC+ supply restraint narrowed crude price differentials. Despite this, integrated refinery and petrochemical sites significantly outperformed their fuels-only peers, according to Wood Mackenzie.
This attack has material implications for the oil market, as a loss of 5 million barrels per day of supplies from Saudi Arabia cannot be met for long by existing inventories and the limited spare capacity of the other OPEC+ group members. A geopolitical risk premium will return to the oil price.
2023 was a year in which the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region consolidated 2022’s gains. 2024 heralds much uncertainty: an expansion of OPEC quotas will impact short term oil production across the region while capacity expansion continues apace.
Despite the prolonged low-price oil market over the past year, North American refiners have largely remained in good financial health — but changes in the supply and demand landscape are creating uncertainties.
Rapidly reacting to the oil market price crash, our experts discussed the immediate drivers influencing the market today and what we expect to happen as this continues to unfold. Our Vice Chair - Americas, Ed Crooks was joined by a panel of Wood Mackenzie’s experts to discuss: Immediate repercussions of the OPEC+ group failing to reach a deal Lessons learned from previous oil price crashes - what's different this time? The Lower 48 fallout - what happens next? The Corporate response - what does it mean for the industry's biggest players
Where new oil supply to 2030 will come from and what it costs
The oil market has come to life, with prices finally delivering on our expectations for 2023. Our oil experts, Ann-Louise Hittle and Alan Gelder, join Simon Flowers to discuss where the market goes from here and what this could mean for the economy and politics.
Today’s geopolitical temperature is close to boiling point. So why haven’t oil prices leapt in response, as we’ve seen in the past?
Wood Mackenzie releases its Oil markets: 5 things to look for in 2022 report which discusses the uncertainties and issues impacting global demand, oil supply and refining markets this year.
Looking at the May OSPs, it is clear that Saudi Arabia wants to ensure its crude remains very competitive in Asia.
Our view of the year ahead, including the impact of Trump's re-election on our oil price forecast, a look at refining margins, ethylene capacity and China's overcapacity affects downstream chemicals markets.
On 23 November, US President Biden announced the release of 50 million barrels (mbbl) of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
What's driven the rally, what is the outlook for supply and demand fundamentals in 2022, and how will geopolitics, including the Russia/Ukraine crisis, play out?
Easily understand trends in the global oil market with our informed, independent view on oil prices and their key drivers.
After over a year of trade tensions, the US and China signed a “phase one” trade deal on 16 January. As part of the deal, China has agreed to increase the value of energy imports by US$52.4 billion above 2017 levels over the next two years. What could it mean for the oil market?
Calmer waters are expected for the oils, refining and chemicals industries in 2024 – but that doesn’t mean it’s plain sailing. What are the top trends to track for the year ahead?
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