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In any commodity market, the marginal supplier makes hay when the sun shines. Oil prices are rampant, but tight oil is not behaving quite as expected. I caught up with R.T. Dukes, Head of US Lower 48 oil supply.
Will this latest bull run in oil prices trigger a new phase of upstream M&A? The sector is feeling emboldened again – a confidence that’s justified up to a point.
Global oil supply will break through the 100 million b/d mark for the first time later this year. Producers the world over, through innovation and risk-taking, have invariably contrived to meet the unstoppable train that is demand growth.
Life’s good again in the upstream sector. All the hard work through the downturn is paying dividends, literally. Brent over US$70/bbl means everyone is in the money given the sector’s cash flow breakeven of US$53/bbl.
The best accessible upstream growth opportunity in fifty years? US tight oil. Correction: the Permian Basin. Second correction: the Wolfcamp formation spread across the Delaware and Midland sub-basins.
How to stay relevant? Every oil and gas company is pondering the energy transition, and how to adapt a business model that’s served well for the last century to be fit-for-purpose through the 21st and beyond.
Capital discipline or growth? It’s THE big question hanging over commodity producers, mining as much as oil and gas.
We've seen a wave of new energy deals by the Majors. The spectre of peak oil demand and disruption from renewables and EVs has sparked a response – if you can’t beat them, join them. 2017 was the year Big Oil started to position for a low-carbon future.
We've had the best year for the oil and gas industry for some time: KPIs have turned positive. Brent looks set to end 2017 over US$60/bbl, up 40% from the summer lows.
What’s the most unexpected outcome three years on from the price crash? There are a few contenders. OPEC’s zealous adherence to production restraint is right up there. US tight oil is another, briefly inconvenienced by low prices but now embarking on a second great phase of growth.
Simon Flowers looks at what tight oil has in common with top tech stocks.
Could Iran Sanctions See Brent Spike to U.S.$100 a barrel? The oil market faces a precarious few months. The imposition of U.S. secondary sanctions on Iranian exports on November 5 is the critical factor behind Brent’s rally to more than U.S.$80 a barrel in October. There’s enough supply to meet demand this winter, but the margin for error is worryingly narrow.
The US’s premier tight oil play has been the beating heart of industry activity these last few years. Soaring rig numbers, prolific production growth and the gravitational pull of a black hole when it comes to M&A. US L48 tight oil accounted for one-third of global upstream M&A spend in the last three years, with the Permian attracting US$2 out of every US$3 of that. But have we now passed peak Permania? Simon Flowers investigates.
Global targets and societal pressure are driving innovation, but are we doing enough? Simon Flowers investigates.
Is US shale the paragon of upstream productivity it’s cracked up to be? As the marginal suppliers, shale gas and tight oil operators ought to be adept at managing for margin and all that’s about. Simon Flowers investigates.
The maths supports a bearish view for the next three years, based on our latest long-term outlook. We forecast LNG supply to increase by over 30% by 2020 as US, Australian and Russian projects crank up.
Fresh from a dismal round of Q4 2016 earnings, replete with weak earnings and balance sheet write downs, come new, raised growth targets from a number of the industry’s biggest players.
Tight oil has garnered all the plaudits in the last few months, but we can foresee in the not too distant future green field deep water projects giving tight oil a run for its money in competing for capital.
Our Energy view to 2035, led by Paul McConnell of our Global Trends team, distils the work of our team of analysts working across energy commodities. Five main themes leap out.
Business development teams are back in the front line as companies look to position for longer term growth.
A strong US Dollar means weak commodities. With the greenback at record highs, and commodities buoyant, is a reverse looming?
After two years of retrenchment, review how 2017 is shaping up to be a year of growth for tight oil.
An ‘America First’ energy policy is meant to be great news for US producers, but will these moves boost investment and company behaviour as much as the administration hopes?
We have raised our long-term estimates, now expecting volumes to rise from 4 million b/d currently to 10 million b/d by 2025 – 1.4 million b/d higher at peak than before.
Tight oil and shale gas, through LNG exports to Europe, are likely to be cap and collar in their respective markets for the next few years – tight oil setting the ceiling price, US gas the floor.
The downturn should be an opportunity for the Majors and perhaps NOCs to move into tight oil.
It’s a good sound bite at a time of low prices and high uncertainty, and a reassuring message to investors about risk appetite, but what does ‘managing for margin’ really mean?
With the M&A market showing signs of life and the value of the M&A being done rising, the time is ripe for buyers in the upstream market.
As other countries suffer production declines under the pressure of low oil prices, Russia is bucking the trend. What’s different about Russia?
The sharp response of the physical market to the arrival of cold weather suggests fundamentals are tight and prices could go higher, whether it’s a cold winter or not. There are four main reasons why.
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