Everything you need to know about electric vehicles and the future of transport

The future of transport is evolving. Our analysis points to a gradual but exponential rise in electric vehicle (EV) sales globally, driven by rapidly changing EV economics and technological innovations. Our experts monitor what that means for oil, metals and power markets around the world. Read on to find out more.

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How green is an electric vehicle?

To understand how the environmental credentials of electric vehicles (EVs) stack up against ICEs on a well-to-wheel basis, we evaluated the energy and material used across lifecycle stages, including well-to-pump (or charging station), pump-to-wheel, and vehicle and battery manufacturing and disposal. Watch the video for the anlaysis: How green are EVs really in comparison to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars on a well-to-wheel basis?

What impact will EV uptake have on the oil industry?

The most immediate effect will be the decline in oil demand. If EV stock rises as we expect it to, we’ll see almost 5.5 million barrels per day of gasoline and diesel demand displaced. That number could climb even higher as fuel efficiency continues to improve and as more countries and governments establish more stringent fuel efficiency mandates. Read more about the future of transport.

Can battery technology keep up with demand?

And more importantly, will supply challenges with battery raw materials including nickel, cobalt and lithium act as a handbrake on the EV revolution? Demand for lithium remains strong and base case capacity is set to ramp up in the longer term. However, the supply picture for nickel and cobalt is far more challenging. Get the analysis from our Batteries Raw Materials Service here.

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3 key questions about the future of transport

Electric vehicles – the story so far

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Electric vehicles research

Insight

Wood Mackenzie's Electric Vehicle (EV) landing page

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Wood Mackenzie's is pleased to present its Electric Vehicle (EV) landing page. This page provides a singular access point for our perspective on how EVs will transform commodity markets worldwide. Analysis is published on a rolling basis, providing quick and relevant updates based on research from Metals & Mining, Power & Renewables, and Macro Oils. The page can be bookmarked for easy access to reports.

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How green is an electric vehicle on a well-to-wheel basis?

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The rise of electric vehicles is crucial in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing climate change. With zero tailpipe emissions, EVs appear to be the antithesis to their internal combustion engine counterparts. But when the manufacturing and powering of EVs are taken into account, are their credentials as persistently green as many believe? We have unified in-house research and data across upstream, refining, power generation, automotive and battery manufacturing, and developed a simple model to assess and compare the life-cycle GHG emissions of an EV and an ICE car.

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Electric Vehicles: on the verge of an EV revolution?

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The global market for EVs has grown ten-fold in the past five years. And that was before Tesla unveiled its Model 3 in March. Within weeks of the announcement, pre-orders stood at an astounding 370,000 cars – equal to one-third of all electric vehicles on the road today. So, are we on the verge of an EV revolution? Wood Mackenzie looks at the state of the global EV market, and its potential impact on oil and power demand.

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Electric Vehicles: a paradigm shift in full gear

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On 11 July 2018, Wood Mackenzie held a webinar on electric vehicles (EVs). EVs present one of the largest uncertainties facing global commodity markets. Rapidly changing EV economics and technological innovations could, and in fact are, disrupting oil, metals, and power markets around the world. Our format was part presentation and part Q&A. In this webinar our experts discussed: - Electric Vehicles (EVs) in context: what are the drivers of the EV transition? - Barriers and Enablers to EV adoption - Wood Mackenzie's EV and Autonomous vehicle outlook - Implications for the major commodity segments: - Oil and oil product markets - Power markets and the grid - Metals and mining The presentation is available for download in the download section of this report.

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Market Report

Electric Vehicles as a Grid Resource: Market Size, Initiatives and Resource Potential

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This report provides a comprehensive understanding of the market for EVs and EV infrastructure, including forecasts, pilot programs, initiatives to spur innovation and EV integration, and potential for EVs to participate in DR or DER programs to provide load reduction.

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The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Grid: Customer Adoption, Grid Load and Outlook

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Each of our reports in this two-part series on electric vehicles provide background on the current market, and serve as an analytical toolkit that presents modelling and scenario analysis extending through 2025. The analysis looks into possible impacts to load, demand, distribution and transmission, peak usage and electric rates in specific geographies and nationwide.

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The rise of electric vehicles: what does it mean for European power demand?

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The uptake of EVs in Europe will be determined by vehicle costs, policy support and the development of charging infrastructure – under the right conditions growth could far exceed our base case and there is plausible upside for EVs to account for a double-digit share of total electricity demand in some markets by 2035.

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California’s electric vehicle infrastructure materializes

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California has kicked off 2016 with a string of EV infrastructure pilot programs including two approved projects so far in the Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric territories which total $67 million for 5,000 new charging stations. The projects represent material action being taken towards the state’s goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on the road by 2025. These new projects also reflect the state’s attempts to address adoption fears, integration costs, as well as the chicken vs. egg dilemma the EVs currently face.

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End of the ICE age? Europe's shift from oil to electric powered vehicles

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Policy support for "zero tailpipe emissions" from light-duty vehicles is building in Europe. In several countries – including France, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway – legislators and governments have announced their intentions to end the sale of conventional gasoline and diesel cars by 2040 at the latest. If such policies were to gain momentum across Europe, then – in today's terms – annual passenger car sales of 17 million and roughly 3.6 million b/d of road fuel demand from conventional cars could be at stake. This report provides an overview of those proposals, including the ambiguities behind many of the proposals. Furthermore, we present our base case for EV adoption in Europe, as sales of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars are increasingly displaced by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) over the next two decades. The associated impacts on gasoline and diesel demand are assessed alongside the impacts on European power markets.

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UK to ban all non-electric vehicle sales by 2040

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On July 26th 2017, the UK government said it intends to ban the sale of all new non-electric cars and vans by 2040. The policy has air quality issues as its primary driver, but indicates the UK is positioning as one of the early leaders in EV sales and manufacture.

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How will lithium supply respond to electric vehicle demand growth?

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Lithium-ion has secured its position as the chemistry of choice for Electric Vehicle batteries as key manufacturers have designed their vehicles around lithium-ion technology. Demand for lithium is forecast to continue to grow apace, with lithium-ion battery costs approaching the critical point at which mass adoption of EVs look feasible. In this insight we introduce the key concerns regarding both lithium supply and demand dynamics.

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