Assuming OPEC continues its policy of production restraint through end 2019 we expect the oil market to tighten in 2019. At 1.0 million b/d global supply growth will be robust although nowhere near as strong as the 1.8 million b/d growth in 2018. This sits against a backdrop of 1.1 million b/d growth in global demand. This provides price support especially in H2 2019 when our forecast shows a tight supply and demand balance. On this basis we forecast Brent to rise from an average of $52 per barrel in 2018 to $55 per barrel in 2019.