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North America ethylene short-term outlook February 2018

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28 February 2018

North America ethylene short-term outlook February 2018

Report summary

US spot ethylene prices fell 5 c/lb from last month, to just under 23 c/lb for the month of February.  Recent industry production information from the AFPM added to the bearish momentum.  2017 saw an annualized production record of over 60.5 billion pounds, up 4% versus 2016 even with the impact of Hurricane Harvey.  Ethylene demand only increased 1.7% year over year, with monomer inventories nearly doubling by the end of 2017.  Ethylene production will climb 7% from the first quarter to the second quarter which will keep pressure on spot ethylene prices and margins.  Cash costs have held stable since January, averaging nearly 11 c/lb for ethane crackers, 20 c/lb for LPG crackers, and 25 c/lb for naphtha feeds.  It's no surprise that North American feedslates continue to lighten.  In Q4 2017, ethane accounted for a record 63 wt% of all feeds, up from 48wt% from 2010-2016.

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    North American Ethylene Short Term Outlook February 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.24 MB

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    North American Ethylene Short Term SupplyDemand February 2018.xls

    XLS 8.97 MB

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    North American Ethylene Short Term Assets February 2018.xls

    XLS 3.06 MB

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    North American Ethylene Short Term PriceCostMargins February 2018.xls

    XLS 25.49 MB

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    North America ethylene short-term outlook February 2018

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