Commodity Market Report
North America ethylene short-term outlook March 2019
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Report summary
March US ethylene spot prices have averaged near 15.3 c/lb, decreasing about 1 c/lb from the February average of 16.3 c/lb. Ethylene US contract for February settled down 0.75 c/lb from January. Margins have tightened as ethane variable cash costs have fallen just 0.75 c/lb over last month. Our market view for 2019 has generally lengthened over last month as cracker startups for both LACC and Shintech are looming and will both add additional spot volume into an already long market. The next derivative units are expected to come online in Q3, which would most likely put them ahead of the crackers coming later this year. The market is expected to be long through 2019 due to more supply capacity than derivative capacity to consume it.
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