Commodity Market Report

North America ethylene short-term outlook October 2017

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31 October 2017

North America ethylene short-term outlook October 2017

Report summary

US ethylene producers continue to rebound nicely from Harvey’s immediate aftereffects.  October operating rates are back to 80% and we expect to see a typical 90% operating rate by year end.  With the hurricane’s immediate effects the rear-view mirror, the market can focus on the hurricane’s medium term outcome – construction delays. Harvey has been blamed for multi-month delays at CPCHEM’s new Cedar Bayou plant and XOM’s new Baytown cracker.  Production for both sites is not expected until mid-2018, despite each company recently starting up their associated polyethylene units.  Delayed steamcracker production will allow North American ethylene producers to run at full rates until mid-2018, when economic run cuts will be needed to accommodate these new worldscale plants.  So far, Sasol and other companies in the “next wave” of steamcrackers have not been materially delayed by Harvey.

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    North American Ethylene Short Term Outlook October 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.21 MB

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    North American Ethylene Short Term Assets October 2017.xls

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    North American Ethylene Short Term SupplyDemand October 2017.xls

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    North American Ethylene Short Term PriceCostMargins October 2017.xls

    XLS 27.51 MB

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