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Healthy polyethylene margins in China – is it sustainable?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The collapse of crude oil prices has softened the blow dealt by coronavirus to petrochemical producers in China. Naphtha prices have fallen 70% since January 2020, and polyethylene has only fallen by 17% since January 2020. As such, the polyethylene-naphtha spread has gone from $300/ton at the start of the year to nearly $600/ton. Against the background of global oversupply and coronavirus reducing the demand, how sustainable are polyethylene integrated margins?
Table of contents
- Slow recovery in demand as global recession fears loom
- Domestic production will be delayed but won’t decline year-on-year
- Large import volumes will swell port inventory in the short term
- Manufacturers’ stockpiles likely to rise again as production outpaces demand
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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China polyethylene production forecastPolyethylene port inventoryPolyethylene manufacturers’ inventoryPolyethylene-naphtha spread forecastGlobal HDPE plant gate cash cost curve, Brent $34/bbl
What's included
This report contains:
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