Insight
Healthy polyethylene margins in China – is it sustainable?
Report summary
The collapse of crude oil prices has softened the blow dealt by coronavirus to petrochemical producers in China. Naphtha prices have fallen 70% since January 2020, and polyethylene has only fallen by 17% since January 2020. As such, the polyethylene-naphtha spread has gone from $300/ton at the start of the year to nearly $600/ton. Against the background of global oversupply and coronavirus reducing the demand, how sustainable are polyethylene integrated margins?
Table of contents
- Slow recovery in demand as global recession fears loom
- Domestic production will be delayed but won’t decline year-on-year
- Large import volumes will swell port inventory in the short term
- Manufacturers’ stockpiles likely to rise again as production outpaces demand
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 5 images and tables including:
- China polyethylene production forecast
- Polyethylene port inventory
- Polyethylene manufacturers’ inventory
- Polyethylene-naphtha spread forecast
- Global HDPE plant gate cash cost curve, Brent $34/bbl
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
How will China's polyethylene industry tackle overcapacity
China polyethylene industry's effort of entering high-end product market is facing risk of oversupply
$900
Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore strategic planning outlook – Q1 2024
Iron ore price set to ease as Chinese demand declines gradually
$10,000
Commodity Market Report
Global bulk steel alloys short-term outlook February 2024
Wood Mackenzie's latest short-term view on chromium, manganese and silicon markets.
$5,000