Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Coal market participants are finally able to draw a deep breath as 2016 draws to a close. The winter of 2015/2016 marked the nadir of US coal production since the 1970s with October to May coal generation dropping 23% from the previous year and a staggering 46% from the peak for this period in 2007/2008. A combination of events contributed to this recent dramatic decline in coal demand including: record mild winter temperatures for 2015/2016, decreasing demand from China and, most critically, low natural gas prices.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016 PDF - 1008.23 KB 12 Pages, 1 Tables, 9 Figures
  • CMS Executive Summary December.xls XLS - 13.85 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Introduction
    • Key Findings
      • US supply/demand balance (Mst) (real 2016 US$)
    • Market fundamentals and what has changed since H1 2016
      • Incremental year on year change in electricity demand and renewable generation (TWh)
      • Environmental Policy Assumptions
      • Natural Gas Fundamentals
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Prices

In this report there are 10 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Assumed probability, timing, and impact of risks
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Additional Environmental Policy Assumptions
    • US natural gas demand forecast (bcfd)
    • Natural Gas Price Forecast – Henry Hub, Real 2016 US$/mmbtu
    • US coal demand by sector outlook (Bst)
    • US Coal Demand Growth (Mst)
    • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
    • Market coal price history and forecast (Real 2016 US$/st)
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.