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Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

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06 January 2017

Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

Report summary

Coal market participants are finally able to draw a deep breath as 2016 draws to a close. The winter of 2015/2016 marked the nadir of US coal production since the 1970s with October to May coal generation dropping 23% from the previous year and a staggering 46% from the peak for this period in 2007/2008. A combination of events contributed to this recent dramatic decline in coal demand including: record mild winter temperatures for 2015/2016, decreasing demand from China and, most critically, low natural gas prices.

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • Key Findings
      • US supply/demand balance (Mst) (real 2016 US$)
    • Market fundamentals and what has changed since H1 2016
      • Incremental year on year change in electricity demand and renewable generation (TWh)
      • Environmental Policy Assumptions
      • Natural Gas Fundamentals
    • Demand
    • Supply
    • Prices

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • US coal demand by sector outlook (Bst)
  • US Coal Demand Growth (Mst)
  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Market coal price history and forecast (Real 2016 US$/st)
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Assumed probability, timing, and impact of risks
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Additional Environmental Policy Assumptions
  • US natural gas demand forecast (bcfd)
  • Natural Gas Price Forecast – Henry Hub, Real 2016 US$/mmbtu

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary December.xls

    XLS 13.85 MB

  • Document

    North American Coal Long Term Outlook H2 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.71 MB

  • Document

    Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

    PDF 1008.19 KB

  • Document

    Back from the brink: North America coal markets long-term outlook H2 2016

    ZIP 16.24 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 848.44 KB

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