Thermal coal is not crumbling. The great price rollercoaster of 2016 peaked in early November, and now looks set to speed towards marginal costs. But prices below costs for a substantial period of time could be a thing of the past. Global overcapacity - which was loose mainly in Indonesia - now looks significantly tighter. A China demand shock, as we've seen this year, was enough to eliminate most of it. And three main sources of supply - Colombia, Russia and Australia - are all at record export levels. Demand now turns to a game "chasing Asia". China's role in the seaborne market will be ever-present, but other nations present interesting long-term propositions, lower up the development curve than China.