Commodity market report
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42 Pages

China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

China’s influence on global coal markets has never been as strong and intense as in 2014.  Weak domestic demand, driven by slowing economic growth and environmental protection measures, has prompted Chinese coal producers to resort to aggressive pricing in order to protect market share.  In doing so, however, domestic thermal and metallurgical coal spot prices have fallen to multi-year lows hurting producer margins and threatening new project development.

What's included?

This report includes 6 file(s)

  • China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 4.46 MB 42 Pages, 14 Tables, 37 Figures
  • 01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls XLS - 2.13 MB
  • 02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls XLS - 348.00 KB
  • 04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls XLS - 380.50 KB
  • 05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 1.97 MB
  • 03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls XLS - 2.13 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key themes
      • Coal import demand – present tense, future perfect
      • Domestic thermal coal supply outlook by energy content, Mt
      • Low energy coal ban has minimal impact on import coal
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Long-term contract price now fully aligned to spot price movements
    • Narrowing price arbitrage squeezed thermal coal imports in 2014
    • Domestic thermal coal price development
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
  • Demand
    • Thermal markets overview
    • Thermal coal demand – electricity
      • Power generation forecast by fuel type (TWh)
      • Company profile: China Huaneng Group – coal procurement analysis
    • Thermal coal demand – industry
    • Thermal coal demand – regional analysis
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • West region
    • Metallurgical markets overview
    • Metallurgical coal demand – regional analysis
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • West region
  • Supply
    • Metallurgical coal
  • Infrastructure
    • Railroads
      • Rail capacity increasing but coal demand decreasing
      • Rail capacity increase will come at a higher cost
      • What is the competitiveness of imports in the central region?
      • Power transmission
    • Ports
  • Trade
    • Thermal coal
    • Metallurgical coal
    • Supply and demand balance
  • Risks and uncertainties

In this report there are 51 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Domestic thermal marginal cost versus Qinhuangdao spot price, RMB/t (Nominal)
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Domestic thermal coal energy balance, Tbtu
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Coal quality standardization for domestic consumption
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Prices: Table 1
    • CFR Guangzhou thermal coal price development (real 2014 US$/t, excluding VAT)
    • Regional price forecast adjusted to 5500 NAR (real 2014 RMB/t, excluding VAT)
    • Delivered coking coal prices and monthly imports
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2014, US$/t)
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal demand by sector and region in 2014 (Mt)
    • Thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Huaneng coal demand split by source
    • Conversion coal demand by region, Mt
    • China’s five regions
    • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
    • Central region thermal coal demand breakdown
    • North region thermal coal demand breakdown
    • North-east region thermal coal demand breakdown
    • Western region thermal coal demand breakdown
    • Steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Metallurgical coal demand in north region
    • Metallurgical coal demand in north-east region
    • Metallurgical coal demand in coastal region
    • Metallurgical coal demand in central region
    • Metallurgical coal demand in west region
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country and rank (Mt)
    • Landborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal production by region, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal imports by rank (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal imports by source and rank (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2013-2020
    • Forecast of railed coal for coastal and central provinces (Mt)
    • Railway fee trends for coal haulage (2006-2014)
    • Delivered cost comparison of domestic vs. Newcastle 5500 coal in Jiangxi (RMB/t)
    • Coal by wire (Mt)
    • China power transmission lines
    • Utilization rates at loading ports in northern China
  • Trade
    • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
    • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
    • China coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks assessment
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