Commodity market report

China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

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Report summary

China s influence on global coal markets has never been as strong and intense as in 2014. Weak domestic demand driven by slowing economic growth and environmental protection measures has prompted Chinese coal producers to resort to aggressive pricing in order to protect market share. In doing so however domestic thermal and metallurgical coal spot prices have fallen to multi year lows hurting producer margins and threatening new project development.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls

    XLS 2.13 MB

  • Document

    02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls

    XLS 348.00 KB

  • Document

    04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls

    XLS 380.50 KB

  • Document

    05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls

    XLS 1.97 MB

  • Document

    03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls

    XLS 2.13 MB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

    PDF 4.46 MB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H1 2014

    ZIP 7.51 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 124.62 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 73.08 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 123.63 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 181.75 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 111.57 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 501.06 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 84.26 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 3.60 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Trade
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 51 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply: Image 1
  • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country and rank (Mt)
  • Landborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
  • Risks assessment
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • CFR Guangzhou thermal coal price development (real 2014 US$/t, excluding VAT)
  • Regional price forecast adjusted to 5500 NAR (real 2014 RMB/t, excluding VAT)
  • Delivered coking coal prices and monthly imports
  • Thermal coal demand by sector and region in 2014 (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Conversion coal demand by region, Mt
  • Steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal production by region, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by rank (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal imports by source and rank (Mt)
  • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
  • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • Domestic thermal marginal cost versus Qinhuangdao spot price, RMB/t (Nominal)
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Domestic thermal coal energy balance, Tbtu
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Huaneng coal demand split by source
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Metallurgical coal demand in north region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in north-east region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in coastal region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in central region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in west region
  • Forecast of railed coal for coastal and central provinces (Mt)
  • Railway fee trends for coal haulage (2006-2014)
  • Delivered cost comparison of domestic vs. Newcastle 5500 coal in Jiangxi (RMB/t)
  • China power transmission lines

Tables

  • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2014, US$/t)
  • China’s five regions
  • Utilization rates at loading ports in northern China
  • China coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Coal quality standardization for domestic consumption
  • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
  • Central region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • North region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • North-east region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • Western region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2013-2020
  • Coal by wire (Mt)

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