Commodity market report

23290151

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03 October 2017

23290151

Report summary

Table of contents

    • Key themes
      • Coal import demand – present tense, future perfect
      • Domestic thermal coal supply outlook by energy content, Mt
      • Low energy coal ban has minimal impact on import coal
  • Economic outlook
    • Long-term contract price now fully aligned to spot price movements
    • Narrowing price arbitrage squeezed thermal coal imports in 2014
    • Domestic thermal coal price development
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
    • Thermal markets overview
    • Thermal coal demand – electricity
      • Power generation forecast by fuel type (TWh)
      • Company profile: China Huaneng Group – coal procurement analysis
    • Thermal coal demand – industry
    • Thermal coal demand – regional analysis
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • West region
    • Metallurgical markets overview
    • Metallurgical coal demand – regional analysis
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • West region
    • Metallurgical coal
    • Railroads
      • Rail capacity increasing but coal demand decreasing
      • Rail capacity increase will come at a higher cost
      • What is the competitiveness of imports in the central region?
      • Power transmission
    • Ports
    • Thermal coal
    • Metallurgical coal
    • Supply and demand balance
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 51 images and tables including:

  • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country and rank (Mt)
  • Landborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
  • Risks assessment
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Prices: Table 1
  • CFR Guangzhou thermal coal price development (real 2014 US$/t, excluding VAT)
  • Regional price forecast adjusted to 5500 NAR (real 2014 RMB/t, excluding VAT)
  • Delivered coking coal prices and monthly imports
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2014, US$/t)
  • Thermal coal demand by sector and region in 2014 (Mt)
  • Thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Conversion coal demand by region, Mt
  • China’s five regions
  • Steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal production by region, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by rank (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal imports by source and rank (Mt)
  • Utilization rates at loading ports in northern China
  • 2014 thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
  • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • China coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Domestic thermal marginal cost versus Qinhuangdao spot price, RMB/t (Nominal)
  • Executive summary: Image 2
  • Domestic thermal coal energy balance, Tbtu
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Coal quality standardization for domestic consumption
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Huaneng coal demand split by source
  • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
  • Central region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • North region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • North-east region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • Western region thermal coal demand breakdown
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Metallurgical coal demand in north region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in north-east region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in coastal region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in central region
  • Metallurgical coal demand in west region
  • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2013-2020
  • Forecast of railed coal for coastal and central provinces (Mt)
  • Railway fee trends for coal haulage (2006-2014)
  • Delivered cost comparison of domestic vs. Newcastle 5500 coal in Jiangxi (RMB/t)
  • Coal by wire (Mt)
  • China power transmission lines

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