Commodity market report
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49 Pages

China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013

China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013

Report summary

CFR China has emerged as the de facto pricing point in the spot market for traded coal.  Global coal producers are making concerted efforts to price into coastal China given its size is 120% of the seaborne market yet served only 20% by imports.

What's included?

This report includes 7 file(s)

  • China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 15.64 MB 49 Pages, 12 Tables, 51 Figures
  • 01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls XLS - 478.00 KB
  • 02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls XLS - 253.00 KB
  • 03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls XLS - 1.72 MB
  • 04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls XLS - 324.50 KB
  • 05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 2.00 MB
  • 06 CMS China Coal Risks and Uncertainty data.xls XLS - 1.80 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key themes in this update
      • Contestable demand versus competing supply
      • Domestic coal supply growth - from where and how much?
      • Is China's nuclear power ambition achievable?
    • Changes from the prior outlooks
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Summary
    • Domestic coal price settlement: negotiations moving from government-led to private sector
      • Domestic spot price vs. annual contract price (RMB/t)
    • Widening price arbitrage favoured thermal coal imports in 2013
      • CIF Guangzhou price – domestic vs. imports
    • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast
    • Domestic thermal coal price development
      • CFR Guangzhou thermal coal price forecast (real 2013
    • Domestic coking coal prices to become more closely linked with international prices as import volumes increase
      • Delivered coking coal prices (US$/t) and monthly imports (Mt)
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
  • Demand
    • Thermal markets overview
    • Curbing coal consumption, not yet
    • Coal quality requirements push up seaborne coal
    • Thermal coal demand – electricity
      • Power generation forecast by fuel type (TWh)
    • Thermal coal demand – industry
    • Coal is an important raw material for many Chinese industries. It is used as a feedstock or as a fuel to generate heat or steam that powers various industrial processes. Industrial and non-power activities consumed about 1,624 Mt in 2012, or 48% of total thermal coal consumption. Non-power coal usage will eventually decline due to the following factors:
    • Thermal coal demand is moving inward – regional analysis
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • North region thermal coal demand forecast
    • Metallurgical markets overview
      • Metallurgical coal demand by type and region in 2013 (Mt)
      • Metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal demand – steel
    • Metallurgical coal demand – non-steel
    • The steel industry accounted for about 73% of metallurgical coke demand in China in 2013. Smaller consumers such as nonferrous, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, chemical and non-metallic mineral producers accounted for the remainder, each consuming between 5-10% of the annual total.
    • Our forecast of non-steel coke demand is closely linked with China’s industrial production. Nonferrous coke demand will decline because of reducing production of non-ferrous materials. Ferroalloys coke demand will be stable longer-term in line with consistent growth in steel and associated industries. Calcium carbide and chemical coke demand will witness a small increase.
    • We have considered that some non-steel coke demand can be replaced by other materials, like anthracite fines etc. However, the replacement will also depend on material cost, technology and energy efficiency.
  • Supply
    • Price-based resource tax will push up domestic mining cost
    • Rail reforms will increase China's transport cost
    • Trucking complements the transport to coastal region
    • North region will maintain dominance in domestic coal supply development
    • Imports will remain a crucial component of the supply mix
    • Metallurgical
      • Domestic supply
      • Landborne supply
      • Seaborne supply by country
  • Infrastructure
    • Rail
      • Price arbitrage point moving into Central China
      • Can China help Mongolia access seaborne markets?
      • New route for Russian coal in to China via rail
    • Port
      • China’s seaports
      • Forecasted loading port capacity in North China, Mtpa
    • Road
  • Trade
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risk assessment

In this report there are 63 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Thermal coal demand in coastal provinces and seaborne imports (Mt)
    • Thermal production versus capacity - operation mines and possible projects (Mt)
    • Nuclear power generation H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
    • Thermal coal for power H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
    • Thermal coal for non power H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
    • Domestic thermal supply H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
    • Seaborne thermal imports H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Image 1
    • Contribution to National GDP by Region
    • Contribution to National Population by Region
    • Real GDP Growth by Region
    • Economic outlook: Image 5
    • Province Ranking by GDP in 2012 (2000 billion RMB)
    • Economic outlook: Image 7
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Arbitrage pricing – thermal coal excluding lignite
    • Arbitrage pricing – lignite
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Image 5
    • Prices: Image 6
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Coal-fired generation capacity forecast by region(GW)
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Non-power thermal coal demand by sector 2013 (Mt)
    • China’s transmission lines
    • China’s five regions
    • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Demand: Image 13
    • China blast furnace distribution Map
    • Non-steel coke demand (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Rail base freight trend for raw coal (2006-2013)
    • Domestic supply to coastal China in 2013 by transport method (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Landborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
    • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country and rank (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal production by province (Mt)
    • Landborne metallurgical coal supply by country (Mt)
    • Metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Forecast of railed coal to China’s coastal region (Mtpa)
    • Forecast of railed coal to China’s central region (Mtpa)
    • Delivered cost comparison of domestic vs. Newcastle 5500 NAR coal in Jiangxi in Central China (RMB/t)
    • Comparison of freight and other charges for coal supply to Jiangxi in Central China (RMB/t)
    • Rail lines from Russia to China
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Table 3
  • Trade
    • China thermal coal trade flows (Mt)
    • China metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
    • China’s key coal storage centres
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
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