CFR China has emerged as the de facto pricing point in the spot market for traded coal. Global coal producers are making concerted efforts to price into coastal China given its size is 120% of the seaborne market yet served only 20% by imports.
This report includes 7 file(s)
China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013 PDF - 15.64 MB 49 Pages, 12 Tables, 51 Figures
05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 2.00 MB
06 CMS China Coal Risks and Uncertainty data.xls XLS - 1.80 MB
Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.
Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.
From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.
Domestic coking coal prices to become more closely linked with international prices as import volumes increase
Delivered coking coal prices (US$/t) and monthly imports (Mt)
Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
Thermal markets overview
Curbing coal consumption, not yet
Coal quality requirements push up seaborne coal
Thermal coal demand – electricity
Power generation forecast by fuel type (TWh)
Thermal coal demand – industry
Coal is an important raw material for many Chinese industries. It is used as a feedstock or as a fuel to generate heat or steam that powers various industrial processes. Industrial and non-power activities consumed about 1,624 Mt in 2012, or 48% of total thermal coal consumption. Non-power coal usage will eventually decline due to the following factors:
Thermal coal demand is moving inward – regional analysis
North region thermal coal demand forecast
Metallurgical markets overview
Metallurgical coal demand by type and region in 2013 (Mt)
Metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
Metallurgical coal demand – steel
Metallurgical coal demand – non-steel
The steel industry accounted for about 73% of metallurgical coke demand in China in 2013. Smaller consumers such as nonferrous, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, chemical and non-metallic mineral producers accounted for the remainder, each consuming between 5-10% of the annual total.
Our forecast of non-steel coke demand is closely linked with China’s industrial production. Nonferrous coke demand will decline because of reducing production of non-ferrous materials. Ferroalloys coke demand will be stable longer-term in line with consistent growth in steel and associated industries. Calcium carbide and chemical coke demand will witness a small increase.
We have considered that some non-steel coke demand can be replaced by other materials, like anthracite fines etc. However, the replacement will also depend on material cost, technology and energy efficiency.
Price-based resource tax will push up domestic mining cost
Rail reforms will increase China's transport cost
Trucking complements the transport to coastal region
North region will maintain dominance in domestic coal supply development
Imports will remain a crucial component of the supply mix
Seaborne supply by country
Price arbitrage point moving into Central China
Can China help Mongolia access seaborne markets?
New route for Russian coal in to China via rail
Forecasted loading port capacity in North China, Mtpa
Risks and uncertainties
In this report there are 63 tables or charts, including:
Thermal coal demand in coastal provinces and seaborne imports (Mt)
Thermal production versus capacity - operation mines and possible projects (Mt)
Nuclear power generation H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
Thermal coal for power H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
Thermal coal for non power H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
Domestic thermal supply H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
Seaborne thermal imports H2 2013 vs. H1 2013
Economic outlook: Image 1
Contribution to National GDP by Region
Contribution to National Population by Region
Real GDP Growth by Region
Economic outlook: Image 5
Province Ranking by GDP in 2012 (2000 billion RMB)
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Commodity market report | Jan 2014
China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2013
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