Commodity market report

China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

With stringent environmental policies and weak economic conditions, cracks are appearing in Chinese coal markets. Owing to a lack of real demand growth in 2014, the oversupply situation worsened and domestic coal prices fell to multi-year lows. As a result, domestic coal producers are struggling to survive. 2015 will not be any better.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls

    XLS 1.91 MB

  • Document

    04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls

    XLS 255.00 KB

  • Document

    05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls

    XLS 1.89 MB

  • Document

    02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls

    XLS 327.00 KB

  • Document

    01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls

    XLS 573.50 KB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 1.08 MB

  • Document

    China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 3.87 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 124.62 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 107.75 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 73.08 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 56.31 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 123.63 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 104.48 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 181.75 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 127.62 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 111.57 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 129.11 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 501.06 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 120.68 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 84.26 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 74.55 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 76.49 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 3.60 MB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 658.91 KB

Table of contents

      • Environmental policies will shape future coal demand and imports
      • Low domestic coal prices and falling margins – is new project development at risk?
      • Major domestic coal producers are keen to participate in the global growth story
      • Changes from the previous outlook
  • Economic outlook
      • Summary
      • Domestic thermal coal price forecast
      • Domestic hard coking coal price forecast
      • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast
      • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast
      • Seaborne metallurgical coal price forecast (real 2014, US$/t)
      • Rail capacity increasing but coal demand decreasing
      • Mengji rail to lower transport cost from Inner Mongolia to northern ports
    • Power transmission
      • Forecast loading port capacity in north China (Mt)
    • Thermal coal
    • Metallurgical coal
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Risks assessment

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

Images

  • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
  • Metallurgical supply demand balance, Mt
  • Installed capacity by fuel type, GW
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Crude steel production and metallurgical coal imports, Mt
  • Non-steel metallurgical coke demand, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal production by province , Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by country, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal imports by source and rank, Mt
  • Power transmition import by region and power source (Mt)
  • Trade: Image 1
  • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
  • Domestic thermal marginal cost versus FOB Qinhuangdao spot price (RMB/t, nominal) - 5500 kcal NAR
  • Domestic metallurgical marginal cost versus CFR Jintang spot price (RMB/t, nominal) - adjusted to HCC
  • Domestic thermal supply H1 2014 vs. H2 2014
  • Seaborne thermal imports H1 2014 vs. H2 2014
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Metallurgical coal demand by region, Mt
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Thermal coal seaborne imports by country and rank, Mt
  • Thermal coal landborne imports by country, Mt
  • Forecast of railed coal to import regions by groups, Mt
  • Infrastructure: Image 2

Tables

  • Key economic Indicators
  • China’s five regions
  • Supply-side initiatives: coal quality standardization for domestic consumption
  • Demand-side initiatives: ultra-low emission norms for power plants
  • China coal supply demand balance, Mt
  • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (US$/t, Real 2014)
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
  • Central region thermal coal demand forecast
  • North region thermal coal demand forecast
  • North-east region thermal coal demand forecast
  • West region thermal coal demand forecast
  • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2014-2020, Mt
  • Infrastructure: Table 2

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