Commodity market report
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35 Pages

China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014


China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

With stringent environmental policies and weak economic conditions, cracks are appearing in Chinese coal markets. Owing to a lack of real demand growth in 2014, the oversupply situation worsened and domestic coal prices fell to multi-year lows. As a result, domestic coal producers are struggling to survive. 2015 will not be any better.


What's included?

This report includes 6 file(s)

  • China coal markets long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.08 MB 35 Pages, 14 Tables, 25 Figures
  • 03 CMS China Coal Demand data.xls XLS - 1.91 MB
  • 04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls XLS - 255.00 KB
  • 05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls XLS - 1.89 MB
  • 02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls XLS - 327.00 KB
  • 01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls XLS - 573.50 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key themes
      • Environmental policies will shape future coal demand and imports
      • Low domestic coal prices and falling margins – is new project development at risk?
      • Major domestic coal producers are keen to participate in the global growth story
      • Changes from the previous outlook
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • Thermal summary
    • Thermal coal demand – regional analysis
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • West region
    • Metallurgical summary
    • Metallurgical coal demand – regional analysis
      • North region
      • North-east region
      • Coastal region
      • Central region
      • West region
      • Metallurgical coal demand in the coastal region, Mt
  • Supply
    • Thermal coal supply
      • Thermal coal production by province, Mt
    • Metallurgic coal supply
  • Infrastructure
    • Railroads
      • Rail capacity increasing but coal demand decreasing
      • Mengji rail to lower transport cost from Inner Mongolia to northern ports
    • Power transmission
    • Ports
      • Forecast loading port capacity in north China (Mt)
  • Trade
    • Thermal coal
    • Metallurgical coal
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks assessment

In this report there are 39 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Supply-side initiatives: coal quality standardization for domestic consumption
    • Demand-side initiatives: ultra-low emission norms for power plants
    • China coal supply demand balance, Mt
    • Domestic thermal marginal cost versus FOB Qinhuangdao spot price (RMB/t, nominal) - 5500 kcal NAR
    • Domestic metallurgical marginal cost versus CFR Jintang spot price (RMB/t, nominal) - adjusted to HCC
    • Domestic thermal supply H1 2014 vs. H2 2014
    • Seaborne thermal imports H1 2014 vs. H2 2014
  • Economic outlook
    • Key economic Indicators
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Seaborne thermal coal price forecast (US$/t, Real 2014)
    • Prices: Table 2
  • Demand
    • Installed capacity by fuel type, GW
    • Demand: Image 2
    • China’s five regions
    • Coastal region thermal coal demand forecast
    • Central region thermal coal demand forecast
    • North region thermal coal demand forecast
    • North-east region thermal coal demand forecast
    • West region thermal coal demand forecast
    • Crude steel production and metallurgical coal imports, Mt
    • Non-steel metallurgical coke demand, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal demand by region, Mt
    • Demand: Image 6
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Thermal coal seaborne imports by country and rank, Mt
    • Thermal coal landborne imports by country, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal production by province , Mt
    • Metallurgical coal imports by country, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal imports by source and rank, Mt
  • Infrastructure
    • Railway capacity expansion from Three-west region and Xinjiang, 2014-2020, Mt
    • Forecast of railed coal to import regions by groups, Mt
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Power transmition import by region and power source (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Table 2
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • 2014 metallurgical coal trade flows (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 1
    • Metallurgical supply demand balance, Mt
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risks and uncertainties: Image 1
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