Commodity market report
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7 Pages

China coal short-term outlook April 2016

China coal short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

The government-led stimulus revived demand but the strict implementation of 276-days working to tackle overcapacity tightened domestic coal supply. Miners are responding with a price increase, albeit slowly. We expect thermal coal  price recovery to remain short-lived due to weak demand and strong hydro-power outlook. Metallurgical coal prices offer a pleasant surprise as supply issues will likely persist for some time.     

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 365.43 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 10 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data final.xls XLS - 1.74 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Little movement in domestic coal prices in March and April
  • Demand
    • Fiscal stimulus is supporting coal demand, for now
  • Supply
    • Will the metallurgical coal supply tightness continue?

In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Key thermal coal prices - history and forecast, US$/t nominal
    • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at a steel mill in Tangshan, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydro-power generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
    • Thermal coal supply, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
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