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9 Pages

China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuring prices


China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuring prices

Report summary

First signs of supply recovery were confirmed in April when the government indicated a 1.9% growth year-on-year for the month of March. However, the utility stocks remain low at this stage and the production growth needs to sustain. 

Key indicators suggest that there is a good chance price correction would stay this time and slowly fall to the government guidance. 

In early April, traders took advantage of the spot price rally in the seaborne market and exported nearly 1 Mt metallurgical coal ex-stock at northern Chinese ports. With normalising Australian supply and dropping prices, we expect Chinese buyers to increase imports and replenish stocks.     


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuing prices PDF - 394.43 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 2.16 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Softening demand and improving supply push down thermal coal prices
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Record high crude steel production weighs on strong demand for metallurgical coal
    • Xiong'an economic zone to reshape steel demand
  • Supply
    • Thermal coal production recovery relieving supply tightness
    • Narrowing price arbitrage window could slow imports growth
    • Australia supply disruption boosted Chinese metallurgical coal exports

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
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