Commodity market report

China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuring prices

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Report summary

First signs of supply recovery were confirmed in April when the government indicated a 1.9% growth year-on-year for the month of March. However, the utility stocks remain low at this stage and the production growth needs to sustain. Key indicators suggest that there is a good chance price correction would stay this time and slowly fall to the government guidance. In early April, traders took advantage of the spot price rally in the seaborne market and exported nearly 1 Mt metallurgical coal ex-stock at northern Chinese ports. With normalising Australian supply and dropping prices, we expect Chinese buyers to increase imports and replenish stocks.

What's included

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  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.16 MB

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    China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuing prices

    PDF 394.43 KB

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Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Record high crude steel production weighs on strong demand for metallurgical coal
    • Xiong'an economic zone to reshape steel demand
    • Thermal coal production recovery relieving supply tightness
    • Narrowing price arbitrage window could slow imports growth
    • Australia supply disruption boosted Chinese metallurgical coal exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:


  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2


  • Executive summary: Table 1

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