First signs of supply recovery were confirmed in April when the government indicated a 1.9% growth year-on-year for the month of March. However, the utility stocks remain low at this stage and the production growth needs to sustain.
Key indicators suggest that there is a good chance price correction would stay this time and slowly fall to the government guidance.
In early April, traders took advantage of the spot price rally in the seaborne market and exported nearly 1 Mt metallurgical coal ex-stock at northern Chinese ports. With normalising Australian supply and dropping prices, we expect Chinese buyers to increase imports and replenish stocks.
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Commodity market report | May 2017
China coal short-term outlook April 2017: supply recovery pressuring prices
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