Commodity market report
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9 Pages

China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing

China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing

Report summary

Thermal coal prices fell in December driven by the ramp-up in supply and cheaper long-term contracts. We forecast the price in January will keep the downward trend by Chinese New Year holiday. Premium hard coking coal prices remained stable in December. However, prices for other metallurgical coal brands started to fall RMB 10-30/t because of improving supply and weaker demand as a result of environmental restrictions on steel output.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing PDF - 399.66 KB 9 Pages, 2 Tables, 10 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 2.11 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Thermal coal prices continue to fall – but at a slower pace after coal mine accidents
    • Upcoming Chinese New Year holidays will impact demand more than supply
    • Robust met coal prices will last until Chinese New Year, but soften throughout 2017
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Chinese New Year holidays to dampen thermal coal demand
    • Shenhua's Ningxia coal-to-liquids project commissioned
    • Environmental restrictions on steel output in the off-season affect met coal demand
  • Supply
    • Government action spurs production recovery
  • Policy and regulation
    • The Plan re-emphasizes supply-side rationalisation
    • The Plan expects 2020 coal demand up from 2015 levels
    • The Plan sees coal imports as a supply option

In this report there are 12 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
  • Policy and regulation
    • Differences in 13th five-year plans and Wood Mackenzie outlooks
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