Commodity market report
| |
9 Pages

China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing


China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing

Report summary

Thermal coal prices fell in December driven by the ramp-up in supply and cheaper long-term contracts. We forecast the price in January will keep the downward trend by Chinese New Year holiday. Premium hard coking coal prices remained stable in December. However, prices for other metallurgical coal brands started to fall RMB 10-30/t because of improving supply and weaker demand as a result of environmental restrictions on steel output.


What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook December 2016: market is rebalancing PDF - 399.66 KB 9 Pages, 2 Tables, 10 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 2.11 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Thermal coal prices continue to fall – but at a slower pace after coal mine accidents
    • Upcoming Chinese New Year holidays will impact demand more than supply
    • Robust met coal prices will last until Chinese New Year, but soften throughout 2017
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Chinese New Year holidays to dampen thermal coal demand
    • Shenhua's Ningxia coal-to-liquids project commissioned
    • Environmental restrictions on steel output in the off-season affect met coal demand
  • Supply
    • Government action spurs production recovery
  • Policy and regulation
    • The Plan re-emphasizes supply-side rationalisation
    • The Plan expects 2020 coal demand up from 2015 levels
    • The Plan sees coal imports as a supply option

In this report there are 12 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
  • Policy and regulation
    • Differences in 13th five-year plans and Wood Mackenzie outlooks
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions

Mailenquiries@woodmac.com
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.