Commodity market report
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10 Pages

China coal short-term outlook February 2017: market awaiting policy direction

China coal short-term outlook February 2017: market awaiting policy direction

Report summary

A divide has emerged in the thermal and metallurgical coal markets. Thermal coal price rebounded in late February while domestic coking coal price kept dropping. China's two big annual political meetings "Two Sessions" take place in early March, impacting the resumption of domestic mines. The industry is now waiting anxiously for the next production control policy due after the heating season in mid-March. Several policies and plans will bring benefits to coal conversion industry, though it still will take time for the infant industry to come of age.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook February 2017: market awaiting policy direction PDF - 395.01 KB 10 Pages, 2 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 2.17 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Weeks of stable prices will not prevent a longer-term downward trend
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • New environmental rules restrain coal demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
    • Coke plants’ losses and production curbs weigh on demand
  • Policy and regulation
    • China is forming a clear strategy for its coal conversion industry
      • Capacity targets by 2020 in the 13th FYP
    • Coal-to-liquids gains marginal benefits from duty exemption
  • Supply
    • Mines not back to full-speed production levels after Chinese New Year
    • The ban on imports from North Korea will have little impact on coal market
    • Widening price arbitrage drive up coking coal imports

In this report there are 10 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Policy and regulation
    • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • Supply
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