Commodity market report

China coal short-term outlook January 2017: holiday slowdown

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Report summary

There was limited downwards movement in the Chinese thermal coal market in January despite the lack of fundamentals required to support prices at these levels. Thermal coal demand was surprisingly weak as a result of mild weather and smaller than expected production cuts during the holiday period had led to an oversupplied market. We have lowered our spot price forecast for end February to RMB560/t down RMB37/t from the RMB597/t at end January for FOB QHD 5 500. Chinese premium hard coking coal prices have stabilised over the past three months signalling the price has peaked. However the overall fundamentals for the next two months remain weak for metallurgical coal because of falling steel production. In addition the significantly lower seaborne metallurgical prices will pressure domestic metallurgical coal prices as well. We forecast the FOR Liulin #4 hard coking coal price at end February to be RMB1 500 1 550/t down RMB50 100/t as demand slows and supply increases.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.17 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook January 2017: holiday slowdown

    PDF 394.39 KB

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    China coal short-term outlook January 2017: holiday slowdown

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

Images

  • Demand: Image 1
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1

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