China coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold snaps send prices higher
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Report summary
In January, thermal and metallurgical coal prices jumped 8% and 10% month-on-month, respectively. The largest driver of the price increases was strengthening demand. But the Chinese New Year holiday slowdown will start to play a role in February. We expect the downtime will have a greater impact on demand than supply. That said, we won't see any further increase in domestic prices in February.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Key market data
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Prices
- Thermal coal prices overheated on higher demand amid snowstorms
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Strong holiday restocking supported robust metallurgical coal prices
- Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
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Demand
- Cold weather will lift coal generation to a record high in January
- Metallurgical coal demand strengthened due to restocking for the Chinese New Year
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Supply
- Higher-than-usual domestic coal supply expected during the holiday
- Potential relaxation on seaborne coal imports
Tables and charts
This report includes 10 images and tables including:
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
- Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
- Monthly hot metal production, Mt
- Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
- Supply: Table 1
- Prices: Image 1
- Prices: Image 2
What's included
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