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China coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold snaps send prices higher

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02 February 2018

China coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold snaps send prices higher

Report summary

In January, thermal and metallurgical coal prices jumped 8% and 10% month-on-month, respectively. The largest driver of the price increases was strengthening demand. But the Chinese New Year holiday slowdown will start to play a role in February. We expect the downtime will have a greater impact on demand than supply. That said, we won't see any further increase in domestic prices in February.  

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Thermal coal prices overheated on higher demand amid snowstorms
    • Strong holiday restocking supported robust metallurgical coal prices
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Cold weather will lift coal generation to a record high in January
    • Metallurgical coal demand strengthened due to restocking for the Chinese New Year
    • Higher-than-usual domestic coal supply expected during the holiday
    • Potential relaxation on seaborne coal imports

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold snaps send prices higher

    PDF 393.45 KB

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.41 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold snaps send prices higher

    ZIP 1.81 MB

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