Commodity market report
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9 Pages

China coal short-term outlook July 2016

China coal short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

Domestic coal market is expected to remain in deficit for the rest of 2016.Thermal and metallurgical coal demand has been boosted by better-than-expected power and steel outlooks, respectively. Supply remains tight due to supply-side controls and heavy rains.
We have upgraded our outlook for prices: benchmark thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices are expected to reach RMB 450/t and RMB 690/t, respectively, by year-2016.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 455.14 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 11 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data July 2016.xls XLS - 1.83 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Prices staying elevated but 30% coastal supply still cash negative
  • Demand
    • Soaring temperatures in late July stimulate coastal thermal coal demand
    • Near-term metallurgical coal demand upgraded upon positive signs in the steel sector
  • Supply
    • Weather impact and implementation of the 276 policy restrict supply
    • Seaborne thermal coal imports hit an 18-month high

In this report there are 12 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Domestic thermal coal supply via northern ports, FOB cash costs – energy adjusted 5500kcal/kg NAR – RMB/t
    • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
    • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fire generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
    • Thermal coal supply, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
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