Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook July 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Production was expected to improve markedly once the Communist Party of China’s centenary celebrations culminated at the start of July, but that view has been proven overly optimistic. We’ve seen a range of production constraints in different areas. Driven by robust demand, both thermal and metallurgical coals have been on an upward price trajectory. The QHD 5,500 price stood at around RMB1,000/t in the month while the benchmark Anze premium coking coal price increased further to RMB2,760/t. We believe domestic supply issues will ease, leading to an increase in output. At the same time, weakening thermal coal demand will result in a price decline to RMB800/t. Similarly, steel production cuts expanding to several provinces will bring down the coking coal price as well, although to no lower than RMB2,600/t. Please read our report for more detail.
Table of contents
- Hot weather worsens market tightness
- China starts national carbon emission trading
- Price rise enhanced by the lagging resumption of mine operations
- Strong macroeconomy bolsters demand for thermal coal
- China will increase peak period power tariff
- Steel production drop won't substantially hurt the coking coal price
- Domestic supply struggled to recover markedly in July
- Further improvement expected
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Daily precipitation at a mining area near Zhengzhou
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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