Commodity market report
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8 Pages

China coal short-term outlook June 2016

China coal short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

Boosted by supply cuts, domestic coal prices rose to their highest in almost a year, providing much needed relief to domestic miners. Supply rationalisation will be the dominant factor driving the market in 2016. The rise in domestic prices will open up price arbitrage, potentially boosting import volume in H2 2016.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • China coal short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 382.09 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 10 Figures
  • cms china short term market report data.xls XLS - 1.81 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • Tough weather conditions ahead, but won't reverse the decline of thermal coal demand
    • Metallurgical coal demand loses momentum
  • Supply
    • Provinces motivated to get central fund allocation to curb overcapacity
    • Thermal coal imports benefit from current imbalance of domestic markets

In this report there are 11 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast, US$/t
    • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at steel mills in Tangshan, US$/t (nominal)
  • Demand
    • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
    • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
    • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port, Mt
    • Monthly throughput at Huanghua port, Mt
    • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
    • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply
    • Thermal coal supply, Mt
    • Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
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