Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook June 2018: US trade dispute dampens demand

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06 July 2018

China coal short-term outlook June 2018: US trade dispute dampens demand

Report summary

The NDRC did a lot to stabilise coal prices in June – from making sure long-term contracts were being implemented effectively and cutting monthly contract prices, to adding rail capacity. These approaches successfully pulled down the spot price although it was still more than RMB 100/t above the government’s desired price range. July traditionally marks the coal market’s peak demand season but we don’t expect prices to soar this year. The potential trade war with the US could have a significant impact on China’s economy and this will have particular repercussions for the coal market.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Fluctuations in June, more to come in July
    • Metallurgical coal market hit by environmental checks in Shanxi
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Trade war results in a gloomy outlook for economy and coal demand
    • Stricter environmental scrutiny pressures demand for coking coal
    • Inspections impact coal production
    • Is the Chinese coal sector open to foreign investment?

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Thermal coal supply, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.37 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook June 2018: US trade dispute dampens demand

    PDF 318.89 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook June 2018: US trade dispute dampens demand

    ZIP 1.71 MB