Commodity Market Report
China coal short-term outlook June 2021
Report summary
Safety was the key factor for all industries in China in June as the Communist Party centenary on 1 July approached. However, six serious accidents led to a total of 50 deaths in sectors including coal mining, iron ore mining and gas exploration sectors. In response, many provinces suspended higher-risk mine operations. The curtailed supply resulted in prices soaring, with QHD 5,500 reaching around RMB1,000/t. The story was slightly different in the metallurgical coal market. Coking coal prices had been on a downward path as the government stabilised rebar prices and there were expectations of a decline in steel demand. However, the mine accidents and suspended imports from Mongolia due to a Covid outbreak there significantly propelled prices. We expect prices for both thermal and metallurgical coal will fall in July. Please read the report for more details.
Table of contents
- QHD price returns to RMB1,000/t
- Supply shortage reverses price weakness
- Coal generation growth rate in coastal region is double national average
- Steel demand slides later than expected but will deepen
- Domestic supply constrained until mid-July
Tables and charts
This report includes 11 images and tables including:
- Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
- Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill (US$/t nominal)
- Monthly coal-fired power generation (TWh)
- Monthly hydro-power generation (TWh)
- Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao port (Mt)
- Monthly throughput at Huanghua port (Mt)
- Monthly hot metal production (Mt)
- Monthly metallurgical coke production (Mt)
- Thermal coal supply (Mt)
- Metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
- Recent accidents
What's included
This report contains:
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