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China coal short-term outlook October 2017: anti-pollution measures start to have an impact

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03 November 2017

China coal short-term outlook October 2017: anti-pollution measures start to have an impact

Report summary

China's '2+26' policy and other measures to curb pollution weighed heavily on thermal coal prices in October, but they weren't the only factors. Long-term contracts for 2018, the government's changing attitude towards imports and its intervention in the market also pushed prices down. And even though domestic output was curtailed while the 19th National Party Congress took place in Beijing, coal prices fell slightly – starting the month at RMB719/t before gradually sliding down to RMB 706/t by the end of October. Prices for most metallurgical coals also started to slide in October, as the pollution-control policies quelled demand from downstream mills and coke plants. However, the stricter environmental requirements are working in favour of low-sulphur and low-ash premium coking coal – for which demand remains strong and prices are holding up.  

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Variety of factors pressures thermal coal prices
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Environmental-protection policies cut 61 Mt of winter thermal coal demand
    • Demand for metallurgical coal falls slower than expected
    • Tightness cannot be relieved rapidly

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.24 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2017: anti-pollution measures start to have an impact

    PDF 406.50 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2017: anti-pollution measures start to have an impact

    ZIP 1.78 MB

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