Commodity Market Report

China coal short-term outlook October 2018: import ban rumours stir market again

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06 November 2018

China coal short-term outlook October 2018: import ban rumours stir market again

Report summary

Rumours of stricter import controls for Q4 pushed up thermal coal prices by RMB31/t to RMB680/t, before market fundamentals kicked in and dragged prices back to their original level by the end of October. With sluggish demand amid a slowdown in China’s economy, we could see prices come down further to between RMB630/t and RMB650/t in November. Meanwhile, the metallurgical coal market’s bull run accelerated. Prices increased by a wide range of RMB10-80/t in October on the back of stronger demand and reduced supply. As domestic supply will be restrained in the next couple of months, low-sulphur premium HCC prices are likely to strengthen further in November.  

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Weak demand counters rumour-led price surge
    • Metallurgical coal prices strengthen on reduced domestic supply and stronger demand
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Slowing economy curtails thermal coal demand
    • Lower-than-expected cuts to steel and coke output boost coking coal demand
    • Production restrictions will have less impact than last winter
    • The highest monthly output of the year
    • Compliant coal mine capacity up by 215 Mtpa

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Thermal coal supply, Mt
  • Metallurgical coal supply, Mt
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.40 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2018: import ban rumours stir market again

    PDF 853.43 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook October 2018: import ban rumours stir market again

    ZIP 2.21 MB

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