China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market
In September, thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices climbed 15% and 9% month-on-month, respectively. The rises came despite the government pushing for speedier coal production. We have yet seen a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections ahead of the 19th National Congress in mid-October are mainly to blame. Although the inspections will eventually wane given the need to ensure enough supply to meet winter heating demand, we don’t expect the thermal coal supply tightness will ease by the end of 2017.