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China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market

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10 October 2017

China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market

Report summary

In September, thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices climbed 15% and 9% month-on-month, respectively. The rises came despite the government pushing for speedier coal production. We have yet seen a material rise in output. Ongoing safety inspections ahead of the 19th National Congress in mid-October are mainly to blame. Although the inspections will eventually wane given the need to ensure enough supply to meet winter heating demand, we don’t expect the thermal coal supply tightness will ease by the end of 2017.  

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Tight supply boosts thermal coal price in off season
      • Key thermal coal prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
      • Hard coking coal price arbitrage at Tangshan steel mill, US$/t nominal
    • Earlier-than-expected winter restocking buoys thermal coal demand in off season coal
    • Stringent environmental checks curb demand for metallurgical coal in run-up to the congress
    • Tightness cannot be relieved rapidly
    • August imports surprisingly high

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hydropower generation, TWh
  • Monthly throughput at Qinhuangdao, Mt
  • Monthly throughput at Huanghua, Mt
  • Monthly hot metal production, Mt
  • Monthly metallurgical coke production, Mt
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Prices: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms china short term market report data.xls

    XLS 2.23 MB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market

    PDF 390.72 KB

  • Document

    China coal short-term outlook September 2017: supply shortage overheats market

    ZIP 1.78 MB

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