Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Coal bull run losing steam: Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2016

Coal bull run losing steam: Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2016

Report summary

Thermal coal's bull-run is beginning to sputter. Physical trades have fallen US$25/t from their peak in mid-November. The surprise election of Donald Trump is not the reason. Chinese policy is; the relaxation of the 276-work day capacity restraints until the end of March theoretically eases Chinese supply. A weaker Renminbi (as a consequence of stronger US dollar since the election) also helps keep international price ceilings lower. Yet demand is still strong, especially in regions facing largescale nuclear outages - South Korea and Europe mainly.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Coal bull run losing steam: Global thermal coal short-term outlook November 2016 PDF - 342.87 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 3 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade november 2016.xls XLS - 1.78 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
  • Demand
    • India: seaborne imports to remain flat despite increased domestic consumption
    • Nuclear woes leading to higher rates of coal and gas generation
      • French nuclear generation (TWh)
    • Trump victory: exchange rates the most immediate impact
  • Supply
    • Australia: Damage to Queensland Bulk Handling coal terminal
    • Australia: Delay in approval of New Acland Stage 3
    • Australia: Maintenance on Hunter Valley rail line
    • China: Continued decline in production, but losses narrowing
    • Colombian supplies into the Atlantic: possible alternatives elsewhere
    • Indonesia: exports continue rise faster than domestic consumption
    • US: new export deals begin to flow into market

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
  • Supply
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