Commodity market report

Coal prices float on a turning tide: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

The surprise conclusion to the US election did little to affect metallurgical coal markets this month but there was no escaping the impact of ongoing supply disruption. Prices broke the US$300/t price barrier early in the month and have remained above that level since. But as we approach the end of the year the mine outages in Australia will be rectified and the Chinese government looks set to exert its influence again this time acting to temper recent price rises. Barring an unforeseen weather related supply cut we expect prices to start to fall next month and continue to do so as international supply increases through 2017. Q1 2017 hard coking coal contract prices will be high we have revised up our forecast to US$278/t but will decline through the remainder of 2017 and into 2018.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook November.xls

    XLS 2.00 MB

  • Document

    Coal prices float on a turning tide: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 373.65 KB

  • Document

    Coal prices float on a turning tide: Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 1.62 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Supply
  • Demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key metallurgical coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • US metallurgical coal exports Hampton Roads (Mt)
  • Mongolian monthly coking coal exports - 2011 to 2016
  • Global & Chinese steel production (Mt)
  • Steel production - other major producers
  • Global & China blast furnace iron production (Mt)
  • blast furnace iron production - Other major producers
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 1

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1

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