The surprise conclusion to the US election did little to affect metallurgical coal markets this month, but there was no escaping the impact of ongoing supply disruption. Prices broke the US$300/t price barrier early in the month and have remained above that level since. But as we approach the end of the year, the mine outages in Australia will be rectified, and the Chinese government looks set to exert its influence again, this time acting to temper recent price rises. Barring an unforeseen weather-related supply cut we expect prices to start to fall next month, and continue to do so, as international supply increases through 2017. Q1 2017 hard coking coal contract prices will be high - we have revised up our forecast to US$278/t - but will decline through the remainder of 2017 and into 2018.