Insight
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9 Pages

Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future


Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future

Report summary

Pessimism is growing in the Galilee basin with Adani’s announcement that engineering work will be halted at its Carmichael project. Once seen to be inevitable, basin development now seems uncertain given weak markets, rising costs, financing concerns and environmental opposition. Our analysis shows that without Galilee basin exports, seaborne thermal coal markets will witness up to a 20% increase in price over time.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future PDF - 332.33 KB 9 Pages, 2 Tables, 7 Figures
  • no galilee basin final.xls XLS - 237.50 KB

Description

This Coal Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

Participants, suppliers and advisors can use it to look at the trends, risks and issues within the coal industry and gain an alternative point of view when making decisions.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets.

Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future decision making. From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Introduction
  • Headwinds intensify and threaten Galilee mine development
  • If Carmichael fizzles, will other Galilee basin projects pick up the slack?
    • Galilee basin production by mine, base case (Mt)
  • How will the seaborne market react if Galilee basin coal is unavailable?
    • With no Galilee basin coal supply the seaborne market will demand more low rank coal
    • Indonesia and the US will benefit most if the Galilee basin is not developed
    • Seaborne trade flow patterns will be modified, especially in the long term, if the Galilee basin is not developed
    • With no Galilee basin exports, seaborne thermal coal prices will soar, especially after 2028
  • Conclusion

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Introduction
  • Headwinds intensify and threaten Galilee mine development
  • If Carmichael fizzles, will other Galilee basin projects pick up the slack?
    • Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future: Image 1
  • How will the seaborne market react if Galilee basin coal is unavailable?
    • Change in demand by rank given no Galilee basin exports (Mt)
    • Change from base case in high rank demand given no Galilee basin exports (Mt)
    • Change from base case in high rank demand given no Galilee basin exports (Mt)
    • Change in supply given no Galilee basin exports (Mtpa)
    • Key changes in trade flows with no Galilee basin exports (Mt)
    • Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future: Image 6
    • Price forecast for selected marker coals, two cases ($/t)
    • Failure to develop the Galilee basin will trigger soaring thermal coal prices in the future: Table 2
  • Conclusion
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