Insight

Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

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Report summary

The suspension of overnight shipments by the Fenoco railway is the latest setback for Colombian producers following a series of labour strikes and flooding over the past several years. Our base case forecast for 2015 exports is 84.2 million tonnes, representing a growth of 8% over the 78.1 million tonnes exported in 2014. However, we estimate the impact of the curfew to be 6.7 million tonnes, which would result in a decline in exports of 1% compared to last year.

What's included

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  • Document

    Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers

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Table of contents

    • Court suspends overnight Fenoco operations
    • A full year ban will cost both producers and the government
    • Big impact in the short-term, but minimal in the long-term
    • Thermal market implications/opportunities

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Fenoco curfew impact on 2015 production

Images

  • Fenoco curfew long-term impact
  • Atlantic market coal supply margins at ARA prices at US$63/t – energy adjusted

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