Insight
Fenoco railway curfew is the latest setback for Colombian producers
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Report summary
The suspension of overnight shipments by the Fenoco railway is the latest setback for Colombian producers following a series of labour strikes and flooding over the past several years. Our base case forecast for 2015 exports is 84.2 million tonnes, representing a growth of 8% over the 78.1 million tonnes exported in 2014. However, we estimate the impact of the curfew to be 6.7 million tonnes, which would result in a decline in exports of 1% compared to last year.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Court suspends overnight Fenoco operations
- A full year ban will cost both producers and the government
- Big impact in the short-term, but minimal in the long-term
- Thermal market implications/opportunities
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
- Fenoco curfew impact on 2015 production
- Fenoco curfew long-term impact
- Atlantic market coal supply margins at ARA prices at US$63/t – energy adjusted
What's included
This report contains:
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