Commodity market report
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120 Pages

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2014


Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

Despite an expected modest recovery through 2015, met coal prices look set to remain subdued until the end of this decade.  Global demand for imported met coal will grow strongly to 2020, relying heavily on Chinese demand.  Post 2020, China’s slowing demand will be offset by India, plus demand from Brazil, South Korea, Germany, Ukraine and Turkey.  This growth, combined with supply attrition, will fuel a need for new mines which will drive prices to much higher levels than seen today.

What's included?

This report includes 29 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 2.48 MB 120 Pages, 17 Tables, 108 Figures
  • CMS Met Coal Exec Summ Key Themes data July.xls XLS - 395.00 KB
  • CMS Met Coal Prices data July.xls XLS - 396.50 KB
  • CMS Met Coal Demand overview data July.xls XLS - 3.56 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Supply overview data July.xls XLS - 5.14 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Infrastructure data July.xls XLS - 2.49 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Ocean freight and trade data July.xls XLS - 3.85 MB
  • CMS Met Coal SDBalance Risks data July.xls XLS - 8.42 MB
  • CMS Met Region Americas Brazil data July.xls XLS - 2.28 MB
  • CMS Met Region Americas Mexico data July.xls XLS - 2.93 MB
  • CMS Met Region Asia China data July.xls XLS - 318.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia India data July.xls XLS - 280.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Indonesia data July.xls XLS - 245.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Japan data July.xls XLS - 268.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia South Korea data July.xls XLS - 217.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Taiwan data July.xls XLS - 216.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Vietnam data July.xls XLS - 546.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Austria data July.xls XLS - 191.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Belgium data July.xls XLS - 189.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC France data July.xls XLS - 3.00 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Germany data July.xls XLS - 2.97 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Italy data July.xls XLS - 3.66 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Netherlands data July.xls XLS - 179.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Poland data July.xls XLS - 187.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Spain data July.xls XLS - 188.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Sweden data July.xls XLS - 179.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Turkey data July.xls XLS - 801.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Ukraine data July.xls XLS - 591.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC United Kingdom data July.xls XLS - 671.00 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Prices lower in short-term, lower in long-term
    • Reserve depletion will be an important factor in the long-term
    • Australia still key to supply growth, but other countries share the gains
    • Most risk centres on Chinese coal supply, Indian development and exchange rates
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic growth returns, but long-term uncertainties remain
  • Prices
    • Summary
    • Short-term outlook
      • Supply growth will slow substantially
      • Steel production is strong, but an improving market will remain fragile in H2 2014
      • Chinese delivered supply costs will determine international prices in the near term
    • Long-term outlook
      • Market balance assessment
      • Marginal cost trends
      • Incentive pricing
      • Pacific Basin prices
      • PCI coals
      • NSW semi-soft coking coals
      • Atlantic Basin prices
      • US low-volatile coal prices
      • US high-volatile coal prices
      • Atlantic Basin metallurgical coal price forecast (Real 2014 US$/t)
  • Demand
    • Hot metal production by region (Mt)
    • Changing pattern of PCI coal demand in Asia-Pacific (Mt)
    • China
    • China – global metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • India
    • India - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Indonesia - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Indonesia - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Indonesia -
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Japan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • South Korea - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • South Korea - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Taiwan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Vietnam - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • France
    • France - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • France - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Germany
    • Germany - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Germany - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Italy
    • Italy - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Turkey
    • Turkey - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Turkey - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Ukraine
    • Ukraine - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Ukraine - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • United Kingdom
    • United Kingdom - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • United Kingdom - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Brazil
    • Brazil - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Brazil - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Brazil - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal exports by country (Mt)
    • Change in seaborne metallurgical coal supply, 2014 vs. 2035 (Mt)
    • Australia
    • Australia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Australia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Canada
    • Canada – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Canada – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • China
    • Colombia
    • Colombia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Colombia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Czech Republic
    • Indonesia
    • Indonesia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Mongolia
    • Mozambique
    • Mozambique – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Poland
    • Russia
    • South Africa
    • Ukraine
    • United States
    • United States – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • United States – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Summary
      • Seaborne export port capacity by exporting region excluding China
      • (Mt)
      • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Capesize Index
      • Dry Bulk Carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
      • Recent Baltic index
    • Outlook for infrastructure at major suppliers
      • Australia
        • Abbot Point
        • Port of Brisbane
        • Brisbane port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • The Port of Gladstone
        • Gladstone port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • The Port of Hay Point
        • The Port of Newcastle
        • Port Kembla
      • Canada
        • Western Canada port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Colombia
        • Colombia port capacity by port (Mt)
        • Colombia Atlantic port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • Colombia Pacific port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Indonesia
        • Indonesia port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Mozambique
        • Mozambique port capacity by port (Mt)
      • Russia
      • South Africa
      • United States
        • US port capacity by port (Mt)
        • Baltimore port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Trade
    • Historical US metallurgical coal exports to Asia (Mt)
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports into the Pacific Basin by demand country (Mt)
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports into the Atlantic Basin by demand country (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global metallurgical supply-demand balance by country (Mt)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Summary
    • Exchange rate risk
    • Rate of Indian economic and industrial development
    • Chinese domestic metallurgical coal supply preservation
    • Alternative Iron and steel-making technologies
    • Chinese coke export increase
    • Slower development of Australian supply
    • Slower pace of economic and steel production growth in China
    • Mongolian supply of metallurgical coal
    • Transformational coal beneficiation technologies
    • Delayed Port Build in Mozambique
    • Indonesian project development
    • Russian project development

In this report there are 125 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Executive summary: Image 2
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Executive summary: Image 5
    • Risk assessment
  • Economic outlook
    • Annual GDP growth of major metallurgical coal importers vs. global average (%)
    • Annual industrial production growth of major metallurgical coal importers (%)
    • Exchange rate forecast for major currencies (Local per US$)
  • Prices
    • HCC demand versus available supply by mine status
    • Operating mine HCC supply vs. total HCC demand
    • Seaborne HCC export availability - YOY growth
    • Marginal FOB cash cost of global LV HCC supply 2014 to 2035 (US$/t Real 2014 )
    • Hard coking coal incentive prices (US$/t 2014 Real)
    • Pacific Basin metallurgical coal price forecast 2014 to 2035 (Real 2014 US$/t)
    • Prices: Image 7
  • Demand
    • World iron, steel, met coal forecast
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Sources of hot metal production growth (Mt)
    • Seaborne imports by region (Mt)
    • Landborne metallurgical imports by region (Mt)
    • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
    • Pacific basin seaborne metallurgical coal import demand forecast (Mt)
    • Changing pattern of hard coking coal demand in Asia-Pacific (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 9
    • China - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • China - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 11
    • India - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Demand: Image 13
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 14
    • Demand: Image 15
    • Japan - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 16
    • Demand: Image 17
    • South Korea - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 18
    • Demand: Image 19
    • Taiwan - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 20
    • Taiwan - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Vietnam - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 22
    • Vietnam - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • France - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 24
    • Demand: Image 25
    • Germany - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 26
    • Demand: Image 27
    • Italy - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 28
    • Italy - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Turkey - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 30
    • Demand: Image 31
    • Demand: Table 12
    • Demand: Image 32
    • Demand: Image 33
    • United Kingdom - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 34
    • Demand: Image 35
    • Demand: Table 14
    • Demand: Image 36
    • Demand: Image 37
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Metallurgical coal cash cost supply curve 2014
    • Seaborne HCC export cash cost supply curve 2014
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Image 8
    • Supply: Image 9
    • Supply: Image 10
    • Supply: Image 11
    • Supply: Image 12
    • Supply: Image 13
    • Mozambique – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 15
    • Russia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 17
    • Supply: Image 18
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Infrastructure: Image 2
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Historic Baltic index
    • Infrastructure: Image 6
    • Freight assumptions for main ocean freight routes
    • Australia port capacity by port (Mt)
    • Abbot Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 10
    • Infrastructure: Image 11
    • Hay Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Newcastle port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Port Kembla port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Canada port capacity by port (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 16
    • Infrastructure: Image 17
    • Infrastructure: Image 18
    • Infrastructure: Image 19
    • Indonesia port capacity by facility type (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 21
    • Infrastructure: Image 22
    • Mozambique port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Russia port capacity forecast by region (Mt)
    • Russia West port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Russia East port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • South Africa port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 28
    • Alaska port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 30
    • Hampton Roads port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Mobile port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • US Gulf (non-Mobile) port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Trade
    • Trade: Image 1
    • Trade: Image 2
    • Trade: Image 3
    • Trade: Image 4
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risk assessment
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