Commodity market report

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

The metallurgical coal market has experienced a continuation of lowering prices and stagnant demand. The quarterly contract price for low volatile Australian coking coal has fallen from US$119/t in Q4 to US$93/t for the Q3 2015 and we anticipate very little recovery over the next few years. Operating mines will be able to meet demand until 2023 when prices will require a more substantial boost to justify new mines. Prices will reach about US$170/t by the end of our forecast in 2035.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Demand overview data June.xls

    XLS 3.51 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Prices data June.xls

    XLS 427.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Supply overview data June.xls

    XLS 1.53 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Additional data June.xls

    XLS 3.96 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Country Plant data June.xls

    XLS 16.25 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 1.09 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 22.04 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 192.73 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 90.65 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 198.31 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 370.17 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 280.50 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 254.28 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 98.27 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 95.42 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 91.45 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Trade
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 78 images and tables including:

Images

  • GDP assumptions, selected countries (% growth, year-on-year)
  • Industrial production assumptions, selected countries (% growth, year-on-year)
  • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
  • Change in seaborne metallurgical coal supply, 2015 vs. 2035 (Mt)
  • Hard coking coal market balance
  • Hard Coking Coal Incentive Prices FOB Port (US$/t 2015 Real)
  • HCC supply capacity versus demand (Mt)
  • Hard coking coal market balance
  • HCC supply versus demand
  • Marginal FOB cash cost of global LV HCC supply 2015 to 2035 (US$/t Real 2015)
  • Hard Coking Coal Incentive Prices FOB Port (US$/t 2015 Real)
  • World iron, steel, met coal forecast
  • Hot metal production by region (Mt)
  • Sources of hot metal production growth (Mt)
  • Seaborne metallurgical imports by region (Mt)
  • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal exports by country (Mt)
  • Change in seaborne metallurgical coal supply, 2015 vs. 2035 (Mt)
  • Hard coking coal cash cost curve 2015 US$/t FOB
  • Hard coking coal cash cost curve 2035 (US$/t FOB)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Australia by demand country (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Australia by quality (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Canada by demand country (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Canada by quality (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from US by demand country (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from US by quality (Mt)
  • Russian coal margins (2015 vs 2014)
  • Russian domestic coal index prices (US$/t)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Russia into demand countries (Mt)
  • Russia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Indonesia into demand countries (Mt)
  • Indonesia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Metallurgical coal supply from Mozambique into demand countries (Mt)
  • Mozambique - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Baltic Dry Bulk Index history
  • Net increase in vessel fleet (Mdwt)
  • Bunker price in Northern Europe vs Brent oil price
  • Bunker price in Singapore vs Dubai oil price
  • Time Charter rates vs bunker prices in the Pacific region
  • Baltic Capesize Index
  • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Cape size Index
  • Dry Bulk Carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
  • Asia-Pacific seaborne metallurgical coal import demand (Mt)
  • EMEARC/Americas seaborne metallurgical coal import demand (Mt)
  • Asia-Pacific seaborne metallurgical coal demand forecast (Mt)
  • Hard coking coal demand pattern in the Pacific (Mt)
  • PCI demand pattern in the Pacific (Mt)
  • China - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • China – global metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • India - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • India - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Indonesia - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Indonesia - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Japan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Japan - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • South Korea - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • South Korea - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Taiwan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Taiwan - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Vietnam - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Vietnam - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Germany - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Germany - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Italy - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Italy - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Turkey - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Turkey - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Ukraine - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Ukraine - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • United Kingdom - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • United Kingdom - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Brazil - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Brazil - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Mexico - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Mexico - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)

Tables

  • Exchange rate assumptions, selected currencies (local per US$)
  • Global metallurgical coal supply demand balance (Mt)
  • Global metallurgical coal supply demand balance by country (Mt)

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