Commodity market report

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2016

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Report summary

Despite the price reversal of March and April metallurgical coal trade will continue to be undermined by weak demand. India's modest demand growth will continue but will be countered by losses in Japan and China resulting in a flat outlook for hard coking coal (HCC) into early next decade. HCC prices will remain sluggish ranging from US$87 to US$94/t through 2023. China s supply side reform in steel and mining threatens a period of high volatility in met coal demand and pricing. Combined with Anglo's imminent departure from the trade and prospects of greater spot activity we expect prices to fluctuate more frequently than in the past. Ultimately India's growth trajectory will determine the rate and timing of a recovery in prices. For those miners that remain the long term future is brighter. Prices will recover to between US$115/t to US$120/t (in real terms) once consistent demand growth requires new greenfield development post 2027.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    cms met coal prices data H1 2016.xls

    XLS 432.50 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2016.pdf

    PDF 1.14 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 319.46 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 159.76 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Images

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • China crude steel production 2016 to 2035 – H1 2016 versus H2 2015 (Mt)
  • Supply capacity less demand 2016 to 2035 (Mt)
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Executive summary: Image 6

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