Despite the price reversal of March and April, metallurgical coal trade will continue to be undermined by weak demand. India's modest demand growth will continue, but will be countered by losses in Japan and China, resulting in a flat outlook for hard coking coal (HCC) into early next decade. HCC prices will remain sluggish, ranging from US$87 to US$94/t through 2023. China’s supply-side reform in steel and mining threatens a period of high volatility in met coal demand and pricing. Combined with Anglo's imminent departure from the trade - and prospects of greater spot activity - we expect prices to fluctuate more frequently than in the past. Ultimately, India's growth trajectory will determine the rate and timing of a recovery in prices. For those miners that remain, the long-term future is brighter. Prices will recover to between US$115/t to US$120/t (in real terms) once consistent demand growth requires new greenfield development post 2027.