Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQ's about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

26 June 2017

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

Report summary

With Australian mines returning after the recent cyclone and other global producers expanding, prices should fall in the near term. But, Nippon Steel’s switch to index-based pricing for quarterly contracts will add some uncertainties, while China’s policy efforts to allow producers to pay back debt will hold LV prices somewhat over marginal costs, averaging US$115/t FOB  between 2019 and 2022. India is the key driver to long-term demand growth, which will elevate prices to US$128/t by 2035.

Why buy this report?

This report can also help you make informed strategic planning and investment decisions by allowing you to:

  • Identify global trade patterns in metallurgical coal
  • Gain a thorough understanding of coal market dynamics, including revenue and demand
  • Understand the risks to metallurgical coal from geopolitical and regulatory developments
  • Discover India's role in long-term demand growth, and how investment can keep prices high

Our objective analysis is based on proprietary data from regional experts who work across sectors to generate cross-commodity, macroeconomic market view for every topic they explore.

This report is based on data and insights from coal analysts local to the markets they study. It includes:

  • Metallurgical coal price data, plus high and low case models
  • The effects of Chinese policy and natural disasters on pricing and supplier diversity
  • Global metallurgical coal supply and Chinese domestic demand
  • Risks to the market, including global regulation and trends toward low-carbon energy

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • An improved outlook, but the near-term trend in prices is still down
      • Chinese policy will help to keep mid-term prices higher than in our last update
      • Some supply will be hamstrung by a lack of capital, and low investment during the downturn
      • Supply diversity more critical after Cyclone Debbie
      • Quarterly benchmark demise a game changer for markets
      • Medium-term market balance suggests low prices
      • Reserve exhaustion and India demand growth are the catalysts for step change in pricing post 2022
      • Need for greater investment, and higher investor returns will keep prices higher in the long term
      • High and low cases: banded prices fall roughly between marginal costs and a Chinese domestic price of RMB1,300/t
    • Australian exports have nearly returned to the pre-Cyclone Debbie level
    • Most North American mines are expanding output
    • Mozambique exports growing
    • Mongolia adding supply to northern China
    • Australian mines had expansion plans in place prior to Cyclone Debbie
    • Between 2017 and 2035 seaborne exports will grow by 60 Mt
    • Chinese domestic supply pivotal to seaborne met trade growth
    • China's management of an economy in transition
    • Chinese steel and hot metal production will fall
    • China’s moves to control domestic production likely to add uncertainty
    • India both a high and low-side risk
    • Chinese HCC reserve depletion could surprise in the out years
    • Creeping protectionism
    • A weaker US dollar would increase the cost of most non-US supply costs
    • The COP21 Agreement pushes for advanced iron-making technologies

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Seaborne metallurgical coal exports by country (Mt)
  • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
  • Hay Point versus Liulin #4 prices
  • HCC capacity versus demand
  • Existing HCC mine capacity versus demand
  • Incentive price (adjusted to HCC benchmark), US$/t real 2017
  • High/low price ranges: FOB Queensland LV HCC term contract (US$/t, real 2017)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.64 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

    PDF 359.40 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

    ZIP 13.43 MB

  • Document

    CMS data metallurgical trade long term outlook 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 17.78 MB

  • Document

    CMS data-pivot view-metallurgical trade long term outlook 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 2.96 MB

  • Document

    CMS price charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H1 data.xls

    XLS 2.11 MB

  • Document

    CMS supply demand charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.95 KB

  • Document


    PDF 133.98 KB

  • Document


    PDF 104.01 KB

  • Document


    PDF 100.08 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 90.61 KB

Trusted by leading organisations