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Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

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With Australian mines returning after the recent cyclone and other global producers expanding, prices should fall in the near term. But, Nippon Steel’s switch to index-based pricing for quarterly contracts will add some uncertainties, while China’s policy efforts to allow producers to pay back debt will hold LV prices somewhat over marginal costs, averaging US$115/t FOB between 2019 and 2022. India is the key driver to long-term demand growth, which will elevate prices to US$128/t by 2035.

What's included

This report contains 7 images and 17 pages

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.64 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

    PDF 359.40 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices

    ZIP 13.43 MB

  • Document

    CMS data metallurgical trade long term outlook 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 17.78 MB

  • Document

    CMS data-pivot view-metallurgical trade long term outlook 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 2.96 MB

  • Document

    CMS price charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H1 data.xls

    XLS 2.11 MB

  • Document

    CMS supply demand charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H1.xlsx

    XLSX 1.44 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 80.95 KB

  • Document


    PDF 133.98 KB

  • Document


    PDF 104.01 KB

  • Document


    PDF 100.08 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 90.61 KB

Why buy this report?

This report can also help you make informed strategic planning and investment decisions by allowing you to:

  • Identify global trade patterns in metallurgical coal
  • Gain a thorough understanding of coal market dynamics, including revenue and demand
  • Understand the risks to metallurgical coal from geopolitical and regulatory developments
  • Discover India's role in long-term demand growth, and how investment can keep prices high

Our objective analysis is based on proprietary data from regional experts who work across sectors to generate cross-commodity, macroeconomic market view for every topic they explore.

This report is based on data and insights from coal analysts local to the markets they study. It includes:

  • Metallurgical coal price data, plus high and low case models
  • The effects of Chinese policy and natural disasters on pricing and supplier diversity
  • Global metallurgical coal supply and Chinese domestic demand
  • Risks to the market, including global regulation and trends toward low-carbon energy

Related subscription products

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
      • Chinese policy will help to keep mid-term prices higher than in our last update
      • Some supply will be hamstrung by a lack of capital, and low investment during the downturn
      • Supply diversity more critical after Cyclone Debbie
      • Quarterly benchmark demise a game changer for markets
      • Medium-term market balance suggests low prices
      • Reserve exhaustion and India demand growth are the catalysts for step change in pricing post 2022
      • Need for greater investment, and higher investor returns will keep prices higher in the long term
      • High and low cases: banded prices fall roughly between marginal costs and a Chinese domestic price of RMB1,300/t
    • Australian exports have nearly returned to the pre-Cyclone Debbie level
    • Most North American mines are expanding output
    • Mozambique exports growing
    • Mongolia adding supply to northern China
    • Australian mines had expansion plans in place prior to Cyclone Debbie
    • Between 2017 and 2035 seaborne exports will grow by 60 Mt
    • Chinese domestic supply pivotal to seaborne met trade growth
    • China's management of an economy in transition
    • Chinese steel and hot metal production will fall
    • China’s moves to control domestic production likely to add uncertainty
    • India both a high and low-side risk
    • Chinese HCC reserve depletion could surprise in the out years
    • Creeping protectionism
    • A weaker US dollar would increase the cost of most non-US supply costs
    • The COP21 Agreement pushes for advanced iron-making technologies

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:


  • Seaborne metallurgical coal exports by country (Mt)
  • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
  • Hay Point versus Liulin #4 prices
  • HCC capacity versus demand
  • Existing HCC mine capacity versus demand
  • Incentive price (adjusted to HCC benchmark), US$/t real 2017
  • High/low price ranges: FOB Queensland LV HCC term contract (US$/t, real 2017)

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