Commodity market report
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117 Pages

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014


Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

If anyone needed reminding, 2014 has reinforced the power of China’s influence on the metallurgical coal trade. The benevolence of China’s rapid growth in recent years has been proceeded this year by a malevolent drop in import demand of 20 Mt, firmly rooting prices at multi-year lows.  Import demand will grow strongly but not before 2016, meaning prices will stay close to current levels for some time to come.

What's included?

This report includes 28 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 1.26 MB 117 Pages, 18 Tables, 101 Figures
  • CMS Met Coal Demand overview data Dec.xls XLS - 3.54 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Supply overview Data Dec.xls XLS - 5.21 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Prices data Dec.xls XLS - 419.00 KB
  • CMS Met Coal Ocean freight and trade data Dec.xls XLS - 3.77 MB
  • CMS Met Coal Infrastructure data Dec.xls XLS - 2.53 MB
  • CMS Met Coal SDBalance Risks data Dec.xls XLS - 8.42 MB
  • CMS Met Region Americas Brazil data Dec.xls XLS - 2.28 MB
  • CMS Met Region Americas Mexico data Dec.xls XLS - 2.94 MB
  • CMS Met Region Asia China data Dec.xls XLS - 316.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia India data Dec.xls XLS - 285.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Indonesia data Dec.xls XLS - 246.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Japan data Dec.xls XLS - 268.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia South Korea data Dec.xls XLS - 218.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Taiwan data Dec.xls XLS - 218.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region Asia Vietnam data Dec.xls XLS - 541.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Austria data Dec.xls XLS - 189.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Belgium data Dec.xls XLS - 189.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC France data Dec.xls XLS - 3.00 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Germany data Dec.xls XLS - 2.97 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Italy data Dec.xls XLS - 3.66 MB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Netherlands data Dec.xls XLS - 179.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Poland data Dec.xls XLS - 187.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Spain data Dec.xls XLS - 188.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Sweden data Dec.xls XLS - 180.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Turkey data Dec.xls XLS - 809.00 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC Ukraine data Dec.xls XLS - 593.50 KB
  • CMS Met Region EMEARC United Kingdom data Dec.xls XLS - 672.50 KB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Prices reduced on lower Chinese demand....
    • ....and lower Chinese delivered costs
    • Price recovery delayed but long-term project requirement still very high
    • Fundamental prospects for impressive demand growth remain in place
    • Demand growth requires broad supply response, driving prices higher
    • Company failures and oil price effects are key short-term risks to our forecast
      • Risk assessment
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
    • Summary
    • Supply
    • Oil price and currency weakness adding to near term uncertainty
    • Demand
    • Price recovery to remain elusive
    • Market balance assessment
      • Operating mine HCC supply vs. total HCC demand
    • Marginal cost trends
    • Incentive pricing
    • Pacific Basin Prices
      • Pacific Basin metallurgical coal price forecast 2014 to 2035 (Real 2014 US$/t)
      • PCI coals
      • NSW semi-soft coking coals
    • Atlantic Basin prices
      • US low-volatile coal prices
      • US high-volatile coal prices
      • Atlantic Basin metallurgical coal price forecast (Real 2014 US$/t)
      • What has changed
        • Chinese import demand to 2020 will be lower than previously forecast
        • The arbitrage price in China will stay lower for longer
        • Our estimate of key seaborne supplier costs has also come down
        • Availability of seaborne supply is higher in this forecast
  • Demand
    • World iron, steel, met coal forecast
    • Hot metal production by region (Mt)
    • Seaborne imports by region (Mt)
    • Landborne metallurgical imports by region (Mt)
    • Top 10 seaborne metallurgical coal importers (Mt)
    • Pacific basin seaborne metallurgical coal import demand forecast (Mt)
    • Changing pattern of PCI coal demand in Asia-Pacific (Mt)
    • China
    • China – global metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • India
    • India - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Indonesia - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Indonesia - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Indonesia -
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Japan - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Japan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • South Korea - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • South Korea - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Taiwan - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Vietnam - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • France
    • France - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • France - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Germany
    • Germany - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Germany - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Italy
    • Italy - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Turkey
    • Turkey - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Turkey - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Ukraine
    • Ukraine - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Ukraine - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • United Kingdom
    • United Kingdom - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • United Kingdom - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Brazil
    • Brazil - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Brazil - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Brazil - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Mexico
  • Supply
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal exports by country (Mt)
    • Change in seaborne metallurgical coal supply, 2014 vs. 2035 (Mt)
    • Seaborne HCC export cash cost supply curve 2014
    • Australia
    • Australia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Australia - seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Canada
    • Canada – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Canada – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • China
    • Colombia
    • Colombia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Colombia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Czech Republic
    • Indonesia
    • Indonesia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Mongolia
    • Mozambique
    • Mozambique – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Poland
    • Russia
    • Russia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • South Africa
    • Ukraine
    • United States
    • Low prices spark mine closures and property sales
    • United States – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • United States – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Summary
      • Seaborne export port capacity by exporting region excluding China
      • (Mt)
      • Dry Bulk Carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
      • Recent Baltic index
    • Outlook for infrastructure at major suppliers
      • Australia
        • Abbot Point
        • Port of Brisbane
        • Brisbane port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • The Port of Gladstone
        • Gladstone port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • The Port of Hay Point
        • The Port of Newcastle
        • Port Kembla
      • Canada
        • Western Canada port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Colombia
        • Colombia port capacity by port (Mt)
        • Colombia Atlantic port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • Colombia Pacific port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Indonesia
        • Indonesia port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Mozambique
        • Mozambique port capacity by port (Mt)
      • Russia
        • Russia port capacity forecast by region (Mt)
        • Russia West port capacity forecast (Mt)
        • Russia East port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • South Africa
      • United States
        • US port capacity by port (Mt)
        • Baltimore
        • Hampton Roads
        • Mobile - Alabama
        • New Orleans
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Most metallurgical coal is produced and consumed at home
    • Landborne moves will climb – largely due to Mongolian moves to China
    • Seaborne-traded metallurgical coal is only about one-fourth of the global total
      • Global metallurgical supply-demand balance (Mt)
      • Global metallurgical supply-demand balance by country (Mt)
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Summary
      • Increased risks in this update
      • US mining company failure
      • Mongolian supply
      • Oil price and rouble weakness
      • Key mid-term and long-term risks
      • Rate of Indian economic and industrial development
      • Chinese domestic metallurgical coal supply preservation
      • Alternative iron and steel-making technologies
      • Chinese coke export increases, and possibly coal exports?
      • Slower pace of economic and steel production growth in China
      • Transformational coal beneficiation technologies
      • Indonesian project development

In this report there are 119 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Image 1
    • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by Basin (Mt)
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Economic outlook
    • Exchange rate forecast for major currencies (Local per US$)
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • Prices: Image 3
    • Marginal FOB cash cost of global LV HCC supply 2014 to 2035 (US$/t Real 2014 )
    • Hard coking coal incentive prices FOB port (US$/t 2014 Real)
    • Prices: Image 6
    • Prices: Image 7
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Sources of hot metal production growth (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 4
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Changing pattern of hard coking coal demand in Asia-Pacific (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 9
    • China - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • China - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 11
    • India - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Demand: Image 13
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 14
    • Demand: Image 15
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Image 16
    • Demand: Image 17
    • South Korea - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 18
    • Demand: Image 19
    • Taiwan - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 20
    • Taiwan - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Vietnam - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 22
    • Vietnam - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • France - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 24
    • Demand: Image 25
    • Germany - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 26
    • Demand: Image 27
    • Italy - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 28
    • Italy - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Turkey - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 30
    • Demand: Image 31
    • Ukraine - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 32
    • Demand: Image 33
    • United Kingdom - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 34
    • Demand: Image 35
    • Demand: Table 14
    • Demand: Image 36
    • Demand: Image 37
    • Mexico - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
    • Mexico - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Metallurgical coal cash cost supply curve 2014
    • Supply: Image 4
    • Supply: Image 5
    • Supply: Image 6
    • Supply: Image 7
    • Supply: Image 8
    • Supply: Image 9
    • Supply: Image 10
    • Supply: Image 11
    • Supply: Image 12
    • Supply: Image 13
    • Mozambique – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 15
    • Russia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 17
    • Supply: Image 18
  • Infrastructure
    • Infrastructure: Image 1
    • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Capesize Index
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Net Increases in vessel fleet
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Freight assumptions for main ocean freight routes
    • Australia port capacity by port (Mt)
    • Abbot Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 9
    • Infrastructure: Image 10
    • Hay Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Newcastle port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Port Kembla port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Canada port capacity by port (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 15
    • Infrastructure: Image 16
    • Infrastructure: Image 17
    • Infrastructure: Image 18
    • Indonesia port capacity by facility type (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 20
    • Infrastructure: Image 21
    • Mozambique port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 23
    • Infrastructure: Image 24
    • Infrastructure: Image 25
    • South Africa port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 27
    • Infrastructure: Image 28
    • Hampton Roads port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Mobile port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • US Gulf (non-Mobile) port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risk assessment
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