Commodity market report

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

If anyone needed reminding 2014 has reinforced the power of China s influence on the metallurgical coal trade. The benevolence of China s rapid growth in recent years has been proceeded this year by a malevolent drop in import demand of 20 Mt firmly rooting prices at multi year lows. Import demand will grow strongly but not before 2016 meaning prices will stay close to current levels for some time to come.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Demand overview data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.54 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Supply overview Data Dec.xls

    XLS 5.21 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Prices data Dec.xls

    XLS 419.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Ocean freight and trade data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.77 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal Infrastructure data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.53 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Coal SDBalance Risks data Dec.xls

    XLS 8.42 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Americas Brazil data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.28 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Americas Mexico data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.94 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia China data Dec.xls

    XLS 316.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia India data Dec.xls

    XLS 285.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia Indonesia data Dec.xls

    XLS 246.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia Japan data Dec.xls

    XLS 268.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia South Korea data Dec.xls

    XLS 218.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia Taiwan data Dec.xls

    XLS 218.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region Asia Vietnam data Dec.xls

    XLS 541.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Austria data Dec.xls

    XLS 189.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Belgium data Dec.xls

    XLS 189.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC France data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.00 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Germany data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.97 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Italy data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.66 MB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Netherlands data Dec.xls

    XLS 179.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Poland data Dec.xls

    XLS 187.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Spain data Dec.xls

    XLS 188.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Sweden data Dec.xls

    XLS 180.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Turkey data Dec.xls

    XLS 809.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC Ukraine data Dec.xls

    XLS 593.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Met Region EMEARC United Kingdom data Dec.xls

    XLS 672.50 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 1.26 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 33.95 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 119.64 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 58.79 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 174.76 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 450.18 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 317.68 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 301.36 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 96.11 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 100.39 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 119 images and tables including:

Images

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by Basin (Mt)
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Marginal FOB cash cost of global LV HCC supply 2014 to 2035 (US$/t Real 2014 )
  • Hard coking coal incentive prices FOB port (US$/t 2014 Real)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Sources of hot metal production growth (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Changing pattern of hard coking coal demand in Asia-Pacific (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 9
  • China - steel production and metallurgical coal imports (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • Demand: Image 13
  • Demand: Image 14
  • Demand: Image 15
  • Demand: Image 16
  • Demand: Image 17
  • Demand: Image 18
  • Demand: Image 19
  • Demand: Image 20
  • Taiwan - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 22
  • Vietnam - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 24
  • Demand: Image 25
  • Demand: Image 26
  • Demand: Image 27
  • Demand: Image 28
  • Italy - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 30
  • Demand: Image 31
  • Demand: Image 32
  • Demand: Image 33
  • Demand: Image 34
  • Demand: Image 35
  • Demand: Image 36
  • Demand: Image 37
  • Mexico - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Mexico - Seaborne metallurgical coal imports by country (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Metallurgical coal cash cost supply curve 2014
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Image 5
  • Supply: Image 6
  • Supply: Image 7
  • Supply: Image 8
  • Supply: Image 9
  • Supply: Image 10
  • Supply: Image 11
  • Supply: Image 12
  • Supply: Image 13
  • Mozambique – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 15
  • Russia – seaborne metallurgical coal exports by quality (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 17
  • Supply: Image 18
  • Risk assessment
  • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Prices: Image 2
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Prices: Image 6
  • Prices: Image 7
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Capesize Index
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Net Increases in vessel fleet
  • Infrastructure: Image 5
  • Freight assumptions for main ocean freight routes
  • Australia port capacity by port (Mt)
  • Canada port capacity by port (Mt)
  • Indonesia port capacity by facility type (Mt)
  • South Africa port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Abbot Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 9
  • Infrastructure: Image 10
  • Hay Point port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Newcastle port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Port Kembla port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 15
  • Infrastructure: Image 16
  • Infrastructure: Image 17
  • Infrastructure: Image 18
  • Infrastructure: Image 20
  • Infrastructure: Image 21
  • Mozambique port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 23
  • Infrastructure: Image 24
  • Infrastructure: Image 25
  • Infrastructure: Image 27
  • Infrastructure: Image 28
  • Hampton Roads port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Mobile port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • US Gulf (non-Mobile) port capacity forecast (Mt)

Tables

  • Exchange rate forecast for major currencies (Local per US$)
  • China - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • India - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • South Korea - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Taiwan - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Vietnam - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • France - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Germany - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Italy - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Turkey - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Ukraine - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • United Kingdom - metallurgical coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
  • Demand: Table 14
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2

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