Excess capacity in the Chinese and global steel value chain will dominate the metallurgical coal market for the foreseeable future. China's steel production will remain at or below 2014 levels until 2022, with hot metal and metallurgical coal demand starting a structural decline. For most of the period to 2022 contract prices and spot prices - included for the first time - will remain in step with trends in marginal costs of Australian metallurgical coals. The long term future of metallurgical coal demand continues to rely on the eventual acceleration of demand growth in India. The potential remains huge but the improvement in investment environment, and the reform, required to make it happen will take time. Only then will coal prices begin a more sustainable rise.