Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQ's about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

12 December 2017

Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India

Report summary

Most metallurgical coal producers have recently benefitted from high prices.  Now, China has imposed industrial restrictions for their winter season, which should lower import demand in the near-term. However, China is likely to support domestic prices for a few years, which will also help seaborne coals.  Demand will stagnate until India growth takes off after 2025. 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • 2017 an exception or the new normal?
      • Demand for metallurgical coal will fall during the Chinese winter heating season
      • BOF steel production in China will hold on to 2017 gains in near term
      • Deleveraging of mining sector in China will continue
      • Expect slower growth rates in steel production, and met coal demand
      • High margins will inevitably bring more tonnes to market
      • Competition will increase in 2018, but prices will find support
    • Mid-term story dominated by flat demand and China influence
      • What does China's 19th Communist Party Congress mean for coal markets?
      • Import demand growth hard to come by
      • Pace of supply depletion will determine market trend
      • Most new mines will reach capacity by 2019
      • Depletion rates increase, but high prices have slowed the trend
      • Russia a wild card
    • Mid-term prices still find support
      • Chinese mining restructure should be a net positive for pricing
      • Supply costs are on the rise
      • Forgoing sustaining capital spend for long periods is unworkable
    • Long term picture: greater call for new supply as India grows
    • China's import needs defy declining trend in BOF steel production
      • Chinese steel production revised up but long term trend is down
      • Chinese premium coal shortages reduce choices for coastal mills
    • India falling short, but change is on the way
    • Traditional demand centres a drag on long-term growth
    • Usual suspects to benefit from expansion of the trade
    • Costs: Replacement supply comes at a cost, keeping prices higher in the long term
    • High and Low price banding
    • Decarbonisation
    • Maturing Chinese steel and mining policy might act to lower prices in the long term
    • Indian growth rate a challenge to predict
    • Chinese HCC reserve depletion could surprise in the out years
    • Alternate Iron production processes

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • High low contract price ranges: FOB Queensland HCC
  • Seaborne export supply change 2017 versus 2016
  • Change in seaborne exported metallurgical coal supply costs (nominal)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS price charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H2 data.xls

    XLS 2.12 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India

    PDF 364.11 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.55 MB

Trusted by leading organisations