Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

After a horror start to 2016, the 30% increase in spot prices of premium hard coking coal since mid-February has surprised even the most ardent market optimists. Buyers have been left bewildered. Chinese stimulus of the property sector in particular has transformed demand and prices for steel, and ultimately provided a much needed boost for beleaguered international miners. But constraints in supply have also played an important role. Options to increase supply of high quality HCC are few and far between. Major Australian suppliers are well aware of the constraints and are taking advantage through aggressive pricing while they can.  Ultimately this mini recovery will fade. We expect contracts prices to hit US$90/t in Q3 but will then soften as stimulus is tempered and supply availability improves in the second half of the year. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 340.83 KB 12 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • CMS metallurgical trade short term outlook Apr 2016.xls XLS - 1.79 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • China stimulus the enabler, but don't underestimate the impact of tight supply
    • Drivers of change unlikely to persist
  • Supply
    • Australian miners working hard to maintain production and exports
      • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • The supply-side adjustment continues
      • Peabody Energy files for Bankruptcy
      • Supply from emerging markets continues to struggle
        • Mongolia's flagship mines at risk
        • Steady as she goes in Mozambique
        • Russian export supply growth constrained by high domestic prices
        • US exports struggle to take advantage of price increases
  • Demand
    • Demand for imported coal bounces back
    • China looks to demand-side stimulus
      • Steel production rise is benefitting the seaborne coal trade
      • Stimulus effects work against Government's aim to cut excess steel capacity
      • Steel production and coal import demand will slow
    • India a consistent source of demand
    • Brazil provides a glimmer of hope
    • Europeans are still doing it tough

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Prices of international and Chinese hard coking coals (Index: Oct 2015 = 1)
    • Key prices - history and forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • US Hampton Roads east coast exports (Mt/month)
  • Demand
    • Global and Chinese steel production
    • Steel production - others
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production
    • Blast furnace production - others
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