After a horror start to 2016, the 30% increase in spot prices of premium hard coking coal since mid-February has surprised even the most ardent market optimists. Buyers have been left bewildered. Chinese stimulus of the property sector in particular has transformed demand and prices for steel, and ultimately provided a much needed boost for beleaguered international miners. But constraints in supply have also played an important role. Options to increase supply of high quality HCC are few and far between. Major Australian suppliers are well aware of the constraints and are taking advantage through aggressive pricing while they can. Ultimately this mini recovery will fade. We expect contracts prices to hit US$90/t in Q3 but will then soften as stimulus is tempered and supply availability improves in the second half of the year.
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Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.
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Commodity market report | Apr 2016
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook April 2016
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