Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2017: Supply concerns prolong the bull run
Get this report
$1,350
You can pay by card or invoice
Report summary
Widespread mine safety checks in Shanxi have constrained production again in China, pushing domestic coal prices to new highs, with more likely to come. Chinese buyers have actively sought seaborne coal again this month, with hot metal and coke production still very high. Prices for premium hard coking coals have surged through US$200/t, and could go higher in September. International miners are doing what they can to meet demand, but are struggling to meet the need for greater imports into China, the EU, India and Brazil. However, slowing Chinese steel demand, and environmentally-driven production cuts at steel and coke plants from as early as October, should see a softening in coal demand and lower prices towards year end, and into Q1 2018. Average 2018 prices will be lower than this year, but we have increased our price forecast to over US$145/t for next year to account for continued high coal demand in China, and greater constraints on Chinese coal supply.
Table of contents
-
Executive summary
- Key market data
-
Prices
- The winter will bring a change in fortunes
- Prices will fall, but more slowly than we previously forecast
-
Coal import restrictions into China are a growing risk
- Key prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
-
Supply
- Russian supply hurt by flooding
- Mine accidents and geological conditions affecting Chinese coal production
-
US supply breaks the 20 Mt barrier in H1
- Mission Coal producing again at Oak Grove
- Corsa opens another low-volatile mine in Pennsylvania
- Arch Coal sells Lone Mountain to Revelation
- Canadian exports boosted by mine restarts
-
Demand
- Chinese government moves to curb Mongolian imports
Tables and charts
This report includes 7 images and tables including:
- Queensland metallurgical coal exports
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Global and Chinese steel production, Mt
- Steel production – other majors, Mt
- Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
- Blast furnace iron production – other majors, Mt
- Prices: Image 1
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
31 August 2017
North America coal short-term outlook August 2017: underwhelming summer demand
North America coal short-term outlook August 2017: underwhelming summer demand
Domestic coal prices have remained fairly flat month over month as demand has been lower than anticipated.
$1,35031 August 2018
North America coal short-term outlook August 2018: hot summer lifts demand and prices
North America coal short-term outlook August 2018: hot summer lifts demand and prices
The increased power demand has been helping to add strength to both coal and natural gas markets in August.
$1,80007 September 2018
China coal short-term outlook August 2018: import policy uncertainty drives market
China coal short-term outlook August 2018: import policy uncertainty drives market
Possible port restrictions spark thermal buying frenzy, but gencos’ high inventories keep prices in check
$1,800
