Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2017: Supply concerns prolong the bull run Report

Commodity Market Report 01 September 2017

Get this report

$1,350

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

Widespread mine safety checks in Shanxi have constrained production again in China, pushing domestic coal prices to new highs, with more likely to come. Chinese buyers have actively sought seaborne coal again this month, with hot metal and coke production still very high. Prices for premium hard coking coals have surged through US$200/t, and could go higher in September. International miners are doing what they can to meet demand, but are struggling to meet the need for greater imports into China, the EU, India and Brazil. However, slowing Chinese steel demand, and environmentally-driven production cuts at steel and coke plants from as early as October, should see a softening in coal demand and lower prices towards year end, and into Q1 2018. Average 2018 prices will be lower than this year, but we have increased our price forecast to over US$145/t for next year to account for continued high coal demand in China, and greater constraints on Chinese coal supply.

Executive summary
- Key market data
Prices
- The winter will bring a change in fortunes
- Prices will fall, but more slowly than we previously forecast
- Coal import restrictions into China are a growing risk
  - Key prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
Supply
- Russian supply hurt by flooding
- Mine accidents and geological conditions affecting Chinese coal production
- US supply breaks the 20 Mt barrier in H1
  - Mission Coal producing again at Oak Grove
  - Corsa opens another low-volatile mine in Pennsylvania
  - Arch Coal sells Lone Mountain to Revelation
- Canadian exports boosted by mine restarts
Demand
- Chinese government moves to curb Mongolian imports

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Queensland metallurgical coal exports
Executive summary: Table 1
Global and Chinese steel production, Mt

Steel production – other majors, Mt
Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
Blast furnace iron production – other majors, Mt
Prices: Image 1

What's included

This report contains:

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2017: Supply concerns prolong the bull run

PDF 332.29 KB
cms metallurgical trade short term outlook August 2017.xls

XLS 2.16 MB
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2017: Supply concerns prolong the bull run

ZIP 1.60 MB