Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2018 - Prices find support

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10 September 2018

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2018 - Prices find support

Report summary

After falling since mid-July, seaborne LV Australian metallurgical coal spot prices found some support near US$170/t and have since climbed. Chinese buying has increased recently.  However, the Chinese winter restrictions on blast furnace and coke ovens looks to be more rigid than last winter, which should dampen prices. In Australia, producers await a decision on the Aurizons practices on maintenance and revenue. In the US and Canada, producers have plans for expanded production.

Table of contents

    • Key market data (selected)
    • Key Prices
    • The seaborne coal price finds a floor
    • Some factors are limiting a further price rise
    • Q2 PCI prices settled, for now
    • Aurizon maintenance still adding risk
    • Price forecast
    • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
    • Australia exports
    • Queensland Ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
    • US low-volatile supply to be reduced
    • US export potential
    • Bluestone increases output
    • Warrior Met Coal output should be lower in H2
    • US domestic contract negotiations are underway
    • Canadian producers make moves to increase output
    • Chinese tariff on US coal
    • China’s winter policy will be stricter this time
    • Port restrictions to continue in China
    • Tariffs to jeopardise US - China met coal trade
    • Possible demand decline in Turkey as the lira slumps
    • Indian imports set to pick up as monsoon ends
    • ArcelorMittal’s deal for Ilva could deteriorate?
    • Global steel and iron have strong showing in July

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Executive summary: Table 2
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Global and Chinese Steel production (Mt)
  • Steel production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook august 2018.xls

    XLS 2.69 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2018 - Prices find support

    PDF 790.81 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook August 2018 - Prices find support

    ZIP 2.20 MB

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