Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2015


Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2015

Report summary

Contract prices for HCC will start 2016 9% lower than they ended 2015, after Anglo and Nippon Steel agreed to Q1 contracts at US$81/t, surprising few, given low spot prices. The steel industry remains beset with excess capacity, record exports and low prices. Therefore, we see little chance of meaningful coal price increases through 2016. We expect prices to trade in a narrow band between US$81 and 83/t through Q3 2016. By end 2016, we expect prices to rise to US$86/t as excess capacity reduces.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2015 PDF - 419.89 KB 12 Pages, 1 Tables, 13 Figures
  • CMS metallurgical trade short term outlook december 2015.xls XLS - 1.90 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Supply
    • Australia remains resolute
      • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • Anglo the latest company to flag a global restructure
    • FTA enforcement will consolidate Australian competitiveness
    • Russian supply concentrating on domestic demand
    • Persistently low freight rates leading to increased cross-regional trade
      • Australian exports to EMEARC (Mt)
  • Demand
    • China's tough 2015 set to continue in 2016
    • Japanese steel production under threat in 2016

In this report there are 14 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key Market Data
  • Prices
    • Key prices - history and forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Anglo HCC coal asset costs (C1 cash US$/t)
    • Anglo PCI coal asset costs (C1 cash US$/t)
    • Russian coking coal exports 2014 vs 2015
    • Russian coal price trends and FX history
    • Supply: Image 6
  • Demand
    • Japanese monthly crude steel production (Mt)
    • Japanese steel exports by destination
    • Global and Chinese steel production
    • Steel production - other major producers
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production
    • Blast furnace iron production - Other major producers
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